2018-2019 Season

Welcome back. 

The Top 16 projections will be released on Monday, January 7, 2019.  Full bracket projections will be issued after the Bracket Preview Show (February). 

Stay tuned!
at

Results / Recap

345.

RANK: 65 / 187


Quality Wins:
  • ESPN - Joe Lunardi
  • CBS - Jerry Palm
Congratulations to 1-3-1 Sports, CrazySportsDude, Gade Pool, and M-SPORTSFANS for the top score.

See you next season.
at

Projection - Selection Sunday (FINAL)


DONE.

Click here for the full version.




Seed List
  1. Virginia, Villanova, Kansas, Xavier
  2. North Carolina, Duke, Cincinnati, Michigan St.
  3. Auburn, Tennessee, Purdue, Michigan
  4. West Virginia, Texas Tech, Arizona, Gonzaga
  5. Kentucky, Wichita St., Clemson, Ohio St.
  6. Florida, Arkansas, Houston, TCU
  7. Miami, Texas A&M, Seton Hall, Missouri
  8. Providence, Nevada, Rhode Island, Virginia Tech
  9. Florida St. Creighton, UCLA, Kansas St.
  10. Butler, NC State, Texas, Alabama
  11. New Mexico St., Loyola-Chicago, St. Mary's, St. Bonaventure, Oklahoma, Arizona St.
  12. San Diego St., South Dakota St., Davidson, Buffalo
  13. Murray St., Marshall, Coll. Charleston, UNC-Greensboro
  14. Bucknell, Montana, Wright St., Iona
  15. Georgia St., CS Fullerton, UMBC, Penn
  16. Lipscomb, Stephen F. Austin, Radford, Texas Southern, LIU-Brooklyn, NC Central

NOTES:
  • Teams in bold are automatic qualifiers.
  • The Seed List has accounted for any/all potential shifts by the committee.  What you see is what you get.
    OPINION:
    • I really hate this shit and am glad this nightmare is over.
    at

    Projection #10-??? - 3/10 (Gameday)


    Given the workload today, I've published the bracket from Google Sheets.  Click here for the full version.  This will be updated every couple of hours.




    As of Saturday, 3/10 @ 12:00 p.m. EST:


    Seed List
    1. Virginia, Villanova, Kansas, Xavier
    2. North Carolina, Duke, Cincinnati, Auburn
    3. Michigan St., Tennessee, Purdue, Arizona
    4. Michigan, West Virginia, Texas Tech, Wichita St
    5. Gonzaga, Clemson, Kentucky, Ohio St.
    6. Florida, TCU, Arkansas, Miami
    7. Houston, Texas A&M, Nevada, Seton Hall
    8. Rhode Island, Missouri, Providence, Virginia Tech
    9. Florida St. Creighton, Kansas St., UCLA
    10. NC State, Butler, Texas, Alabama
    11. Oklahoma, Loyola-Chicago, St. Bonaventure, St. Mary's, Arizona St. Marquette
    12. New Mexico St., Western Ky., South Dakota St., Buffalo
    13. Murray St., San Diego St., Vermont, UL-Lafayette
    14. Coll. Charleston, UNC Greensboro, Bucknell, Montana
    15. Wright St., Iona, CS Fullerton, Penn
    16. Lipscomb, Radford, LIU-Brooklyn, Nicholls St., Hampton, Ark. Pine-Bluff

    NOTES:
    • The Seed List is no longer "true."  Some teams have been moved up/down to match bracketing principles.
    • Teams in bold are automatic qualifiers.
    OPINION:
    • The #1 seeds are locked.
    • I believe that head-to-head match-ups and common opponents will dictate the bubble:
      • Oklahoma beat USC
      • USC beat MTSU
      • St. Bonaventure beat Syracuse
    • The RPI will keep Notre Dame and Oklahoma St. OUT.
    at

    Projection #9 - Week 18



    Seed List
    1. Virginia, Xavier, Villanova, Kansas
    2. Duke, Auburn, Cincinnati, Michigan St.
    3. North Carolina, Tennessee, Purdue, Clemson
    4. Arizona, Michigan, Texas Tech, Wichita St.
    5. Gonzaga, West Virginia, Ohio St., Kentucky
    6. TCU, Houston, Florida, Nevada
    7. Creighton, Arkansas, Florida St. Rhode Island
    8. Texas A&M, Miami, Oklahoma, Seton Hall
    9. Missouri, Butler, St. Mary's, NC State
    10. Arizona St., Virginia Tech, Providence, St. Bonaventure
    11. Syracuse, Alabama, Louisville, Marquette, USC, Texas
    12. Middle Tennessee, New Mexico St., Loyola-Chicago, Buffalo
    13. South Dakota St., Murray St., Vermont, UL-Lafayette
    14. Wright St., UNC Greensboro, Montana, Bucknell
    15. Coll. Charleston, Penn, Iona, Lipscomb
    16. UC Irvine, Radford, Wagner, Nicholls St., Ark. Pine-Bluff, Bethune-Cookman

    NOTES:
    • Teams in bold are automatic qualifiers.
    • First Four teams are not listed by "True Seed."  Regional assignment is reflective in the bracket.
    OPINION:
    • If there's a line to draw and separate the field, it's clearly between seeds 5 and 6.
    • I believe the committee will favor a conference champion over head-to-head on some seed lines.  This currently projects to the 1 line with Xavier/Villanova.
    • Head-to-head will probably be considered close to the bubble (10/11).
    at

    Tournament Field - Active




    I'm now updating The Field whenever possible.  The screenshot above was taken at the end of 2/26.

    Refer here for the live feed.
    at

    Projection #8 - Week 17





    Seed List
    1. Virginia, Villanova, Xavier, Kansas
    2. Duke, Auburn, Michigan St., Purdue
    3. North Carolina, Texas Tech, Cincinnati, Clemson
    4. Arizona, Tennessee, Ohio St., West Virginia
    5. Wichita St., Gonzaga, Rhode Island, Kentucky
    6. Michigan, Creighton, TCU, Texas A&M
    7. Houston, Arizona St., Arkansas, Oklahoma
    8. Nevada, Florida St., Missouri, Butler
    9. Alabama, Florida, Seton Hall, Miami
    10. NC State, St. Mary's, Providence, UCLA
    11. St. Bonaventure, Texas, Virginia Tech, Marquette, USC, Baylor
    12. Middle Tennessee, New Mexico St., South Dakota St., Buffalo
    13. Vermont, Loyola-Chicago, Murray St., UL-Lafayette
    14. N. Kentucky, UNC Greensboro, Montana, Bucknell
    15. Coll. Charleston, Penn, Rider, FGCU
    16. UC Irvine, UNC-Asheville, Wagner, Nicholls St., Ark. Pine-Bluff, Bethune-Cookman

    NOTES:
    • Until conference tournament play, Michigan St. can only be moved by other teams.
    • No teams were flexed up/down seed lines.
    OPINION:
    • I still don't buy into the OUT theory for UCLA.  Considering the loss of starters and Q1 wins (Kentucky, Arizona), they should be in the field.
    • Florida St. and NC State have become very similar.  I think the committee will favor FSU by recent AP ranking.
    • Villanova's loss on Saturday simply closed the gap on the 1-line.  The season sweep over Xavier maintains the second spot.
    at

    Projection #7 - Week 16





    Seed List
    1. Virginia, Villanova, Xavier, Kansas
    2. Auburn, Duke, Purdue, Texas Tech
    3. Michigan St., North Carolina, Cincinnati, Clemson
    4. Arizona, Tennessee, Ohio St. West Virginia
    5. Gonzaga, Rhode Island, Wichita St., Arizona St.
    6. Michigan, Oklahoma, Texas A&M, Kentucky
    7. Florida, Missouri, Houston, TCU
    8. Nevada, Alabama, Creighton, Florida St.
    9. Arkansas, UCLA, Seton Hall, Butler
    10. St. Mary's, Texas, NC State, Providence
    11. Syracuse, Kansas St., Baylor, Miami, USC, Virginia Tech
    12. Middle Tennessee, New Mexico St., South Dakota St., Buffalo
    13. Vermont, Loyola-Chicago, Murray St., East Tennessee St.
    14. UL-Lafayette, Montana, Wright St., Bucknell
    15. Coll. Charleston, Penn, Rider, FGCU
    16. UCSB, UNC-Asheville, Wagner, Nicholls St., Grambling St., Savannah St.

    NOTES:
    • In comparison to the last projection, this is a complete overhaul based on "look."
    • TCU and Creighton were flexed on seed lines (7/8) to avoid early conference rematches.

    OPINION:
    • Gonzaga is knocking on the door of the last #4 seed.  Winning the regular season conference should put them there.
    • The "too many losses" argument starts with the #6 seeds.  Michigan holds this spot simply because they have less harm done than others below them.
    • Compared to other teams on the bubble, USC should be safe since their non-conference record isn't below 300.  Kansas St. and Virginia Tech are... lucky(?) right now.
    at

    Projection #6 - Week 15






    Seed List
    1. Virginia, Villanova, Xavier, Purdue
    2. Auburn, Kansas, Duke, Cincinnati
    3. Clemson, Texas Tech, Michigan St., North Carolina
    4. Tennessee, Ohio St., Arizona, Oklahoma
    5. Kentucky, West Virginia, Rhode Island, Florida
    6. Arizona St., Gonzaga, Texas A&M, Miami
    7. St. Mary's, Texas, TCU, Seton Hall
    8. Florida St., Michigan, Creighton, Butler
    9. Arkansas, Wichita St., Missouri, UCLA
    10. Alabama, Syracuse, Nevada, Louisville
    11. USC, New Mexico St., Utah, Houston, Washington, Baylor
    12. Middle Tennessee, Boise St., South Dakota St., Buffalo
    13. Vermont, Loyola-Chicago, Murray St., East Tennessee St.
    14. UL-Lafayette, Montana, Bucknell, N. Kentucky
    15. Coll. Charleston, Penn, Rider, FGCU
    16. UCSB, UNC-Asheville, Wagner, Nicholls St., Grambling St., Savannah St.

    NOTES:
    • RPI is (more) heavily considered based on the Bracket Preview Show.
    • This is the first projection with flexed seed lines (Florida St. / Seton Hall at 7/8).
    • Seeds 12-16 are no longer placeholders by projected conference winner.

    OPINION:
    • The Selection Committee has basically thrown my evaluation process out the window.  I'm throwing darts at this point.
    • Lack of a non-power conference leader in the Top 4 pushes the WCC back.  Rhode Island is safe at 5 with no bad losses.
    • Despite a lack of Q1 wins, Wichita St. benefits from RPI history and is in the field.
    at

    RE: Bracket Preview Show


    My prediction for the Bracket Preview was... in significant disagreement with the Selection Committee.

    In terms of the Bracket Matrix, I scored 26 points out of a possible 48.


    If you are looking for a reaction or Post-Game Interview, I have no comment at this time.  SBNation, however, has some feedback.


    Stock Watch: 

    While team performance and "value" will be heavily monitored (and debated) over the coming weeks, I have another agenda: Q1

    Short for Quadrant 1, Q1 encompasses a teams wins on 3 factors:
    1. Home - RPI 1-30
    2. Neutral - RPI 1-50
    3. Away - RPI 1-75


    On 2/4, Virginia had an overall record of 7-1 against teams in Q1.  This can (and does) change throughout the season.  My concern is that how much the fluctuation is considered, if at all.

    For example, if Louisville or Virginia Tech were to drop in the RPI (31 and 76 respectively), Virginia would have a Q1 record of 5-1 instead.  This raises several questions:
    • Did the committee notice the change(s)?
    • Are those teams actually regressing?
    • Should those wins carry the same weight despite the movement between quadrants?
    I believe this metric and trend will favor a team on the bubble.  A week ago, SMU had 2 wins against teams perceived to be on the bubble (Boise St., USC).  Theoretically, these teams can improve and move into Q1.  Based on one perspective, this can "backdoor" SMU into the field.


    The takeaway is how the committee determines the value of Quadrant 1 - by arbitrary numbers set in place or the box scores.

    at

    Bubble Watch (Updated Daily)



    The active Bubble Watch is posted here.  While the screenshot was taken as a sample, the spreadsheet is updated whenever possible.

    I am constantly working to encompass a variety of statistics unlike those "other guys."  Currently, data is composed as follows:
    1. Record
    2. Strength of Schedule (SOS)
    3. Non-Conference Schedule
    4. Quadrant 1 Win/Loss
    5. Wins against the field (True Seeds 1-32)
    6. RPI Losses (101-200) / (201+)
    These metrics are likely to change after the Bracket Preview Show on 2/11.
    at

    Projection #5 - Week 14





    Seed List
    1. Villanova, Virginia, Purdue, Xavier
    2. Auburn, Clemson, Duke, Texas Tech
    3. Arizona, Cincinnati, Oklahoma, Kansas
    4. Tennessee, North Carolina, Kentucky, West Virginia
    5. Rhode Island, Gonzaga, Ohio St., Michigan St.
    6. Seton Hall, Miami, Arizona St., St. Mary's
    7. Texas, Louisville, TCU, Wichita St.
    8. Creighton, Michigan, Nevada, Alabama
    9. Florida St., Florida, Butler, Texas A&M
    10. Arkansas, Missouri, Washington, Providence
    11. UCLA, USC, NC State, Houston, South Carolina, Marquette
    12. Middle Tennessee, New Mexico St., Belmont, Loyola-Chicago.
    13. South Dakota St., Buffalo, Vermont, East Tennessee St.
    14. UL-Lafayette, Montana, Wright St., Bucknell
    15. FGCU, College of Charleston, Penn, Rider
    16. UCSB, UNC-Asheville, Wagner, Nicholls St., North Carolina A&T, Arkansas Pine-Bluff

    NOTES:
    • All "3rd conference rematch" scenarios are (still) factored to assign teams by region.
    • Seeds 12-16 are placeholders by projected conference winner, RPI, and Team Rank.

    OPINION:
    • Xavier and Auburn are very close.  Despite a blowout loss to Villanova, quality wins favor XU to secure the final #1 seed.
    • Today, Kansas St. and Virginia Tech are the same evaluation.  Both are OUT.
    • Michigan St. continues to be favored by the BPI.  With only one quality win (UNC), they are placed on the 5 line.
    at

    Projection #4 - Week 13




    Seed List
    1. Villanova, Virginia, Purdue, Kansas
    2. Duke, Xavier, Arizona, Auburn
    3. Texas Tech, West Virginia, Cincinnati, Oklahoma
    4. Clemson, Michigan St., North Carolina, Florida
    5. Tennessee, Kentucky, Gonzaga, Wichita St.
    6. Ohio St. Rhode Island, Miami, Seton Hall
    7. TCU, Michigan, Creighton, Louisville
    8. Nevada, Florida St. Arizona St., Texas
    9. Butler, St. Mary's, Arkansas, Texas A&M
    10. Marquette, Providence, Alabama, Kansas St.
    11. SMU, USC, W. Kentucky, Houston, Missouri, UCLA
    12. Middle Tennessee, New Mexico St., Belmont, Loyola-Chicago.
    13. Buffalo, Vermont, East Tennessee St., South Dakota
    14. UL-Lafayette, Wright St., Bucknell, Montana
    15. Coll. Charleston, Nicholls St., Penn, FGCU
    16. Rider, Radford, Wagner, Long Beach St., North Carolina A&T, Arkansas Pine-Bluff

    NOTES:
    • Emphasis on head-to-head match-ups to keep seed line "true"
    • All "3rd conference rematch" scenarios are factored to assign teams by region.

    OPINION:
    • St. Mary's (AP #13) is the toughest evaluation.  
      • Quality wins are New Mexico St. and Gonzaga
      • Undefeated in WCC.
      • Bad loss to Washington State
    • Syracuse needs a Top 50 RPI win to get in the field.  Currently, their best win is a home game against Buffalo.
    at

    Projection #3 - Week 12




    Seed List
    1. Villanova, Virginia, Purdue, Duke
    2. Kansas, Xavier, Arizona, West Virginia
    3. Oklahoma, North Carolina, Clemson, Auburn
    4. Michigan St., Texas Tech, Gonzaga, Cincinnati
    5. Arizona St., Florida, Wichita St., Ohio St.
    6. Tennessee, TCU, Miami, Kentucky
    7. Michigan, Florida St., Creighton, Seton Hall
    8. Rhode Island, Louisville, Nevada, Texas
    9. Arkansas, Butler, St. Mary's, Alabama
    10. Marquette, Texas A&M, Notre Dame, Missouri
    11. Providence, USC, Washington, SMU, Georgia, Middle Tennessee
    12. New Mexico St. Old Dominion, Belmont, Missouri St.
    13. South Dakota St., Buffalo, Vermont, East Tennessee St.
    14. UL-Lafayette, Wright St., William & Mary, Stephen F. Austin
    15. Montana, Bucknell, Penn, FGCU
    16. Iona, Hawaii, Radford, Wagner, North Carolina A&T, Arkansas Pine-Bluff

    NOTES:
    • Regional Assignment is now a consideration.
    • The 11 seeds were shuffled to avoid possible rematches in the First/Second rounds.
    • Currently, the deciding factor to put a team IN the field is avoiding an ugly loss (sub-200 RPI).

    at

    Details of Next Update


    The next projection should be posted on Monday, 1/22.  Here is a preview of its predictive system:



    • Automatic Bids are still projected by current conference standings.
    • Teams are now placed by "True Seed"
      • Regional/Host sites subsequently listed
    • Starting at Seed 5, season/conference match-ups are considered to move teams along the line.
      • For example, if a potential rematch exists for a 4/5 in the same conference during the regular season, the 5 team must be moved per principle.
    • RPI Comparison heavily favored outside the Top 8.
    • "In" teams must have at least 1 quality win (Top 50 RPI).
      • The "scrubbing" process is emphasized only on the bubble.

    at

    Second Bracket Projection



    Kansas State practically dribbled out the clock to let Kansas win.  Guess who's left out of the field?

    Here's my projection:




    Seed List:
    1: Villanova, Virginia, Purdue, Oklahoma
    2: Duke, Texas Tech, Wichita State, West Virginia
    3: Michigan State, Kansas, Xavier, Gonzaga
    4: Arizona, Cincinnati, Auburn, North Carolina
    5: Kentucky, Arizona State, Seton Hall, Clemson
    6: Tennessee, Ohio State, Michigan, TCU
    7: Miami, Florida State, Creighton, Nevada
    8: St. Mary’s, Florida, Louisville, Houston
    9: Arkansas, Texas, Butler, Rhode Island
    10: Marquette, Notre Dame, SMU, UCLA
    11: USC, Middle Tennessee, Syracuse, Alabama, St. Bonaventure, Providence
    12: Western Kentucky, New Mexico St., Missouri St., Murray St.
    13: South Dakota St., Vermont, East Tennessee St., Buffalo
    14: UL-Lafayette, Wright St., William & Mary, Stephen F. Austin
    15: Montana, Bucknell, CS Fullerton, Florida Gulf Coast
    16: Iona, Penn, Radford, Robert Morris, Jackson St., Bethune-Cookman


    NOTES: 
    • Automatic Bid differences from the first bracket are highlighted in yellow.
    • In comparison to the first bracket, "true seed" was considered before regional assignment.

    at

    Methodology




    Full Court Press is my favorite coaching style.  It happens to be a nice play-on-words for studying Bracketology.

    A continuous work-in-progress, my concept to determine the bracket is based on the following:
    1. The NCAA Principles and Procedures
    2. Team Sheets
    3. AP Top 25
    4. NET Rankings
    5. How I believe the committee will achieve "reasonable balance" and keep the seed lines "as equal as possible."
    6. KenPom ratings
    7. Current non-power conference leaders
    8. The RPI
    9. Bubble team selection (or lack thereof) last season

     Update (1/15/18): RPI is a consideration, despite my absolute hatred toward the metric.

    Update (1/23/18): Team Sheets used by the Selection Committee are available, sorted 1-351 by RPI.  These will be a more primary focus going forward.

    Update (2/11/18): Added NET Rankings.

    at

    About Me


    Name: FCP
    Location: Ohio

    Never athletic enough to play, but I might be intelligent and boisterous enough to coach basketball at the collegiate level.  Despite having no coaching experience, like most (coaches), I developed early signs of male-pattern baldness.

    I follow the game as a Gambler, Coach, Fan, and Analyst.

    Key points:
    1. Always bet the over.
    2. A win is NOT a win.  How you win has more significance.
    3. Local/Hometown pride is not required.  If you want to be a fan, find a program that you can identify with and show support.

    I have attended the NCAA First Four nearly every year since 2004. Here's some highlights of my experiences:
    • Interviewed as a "student" from Mount St. Mary's
    • Sat with MTSU President Sidney McPhee 
    • Inadvertently worked with the Providence Scout team 
    • Met Erin Andrews, Clark Kellogg, and Gregg Marshall



    at
    Labels:

    First Bracket Projection


    Conference Play - LET'S GOOOOOOOO!

    The Field of 68 is still a crapshoot, but Duke is a sure-thing on the OVER.  Here's my projection:
    		Seed List:
    1: Villanova, Virginia, West Virginia, Michigan State
    2: Duke, Purdue, Wichita State, Xavier
    3: Oklahoma, Arizona State, Texas Tech, Seton Hall
    4: Kansas, Cincinnati, Gonzaga, Clemson
    5: TCU, Arizona, Kentucky, North Carolina
    6: Miami, Auburn, Creighton, Notre Dame
    7: Florida State, Tennessee, Ohio State, Nevada
    8: Texas A&M, Michigan, Florida, St. Mary’s
    9: Butler, Rhode Island, Missouri, Baylor
    10: SMU, Texas, Georgia, Louisville
    11: UCLA, Houston, Syracuse, Marquette, St. Bonaventure, Boise St.
    12: New Mexico State, Old Dominion, Murray St., Missouri St.
    13: Vermont, South Dakota St., East Tennessee St., Buffalo
    14: Louisiana-Lafayette, Northern Kentucky, William and Mary, Lipscomb
    15: Stephen F. Austin, Montana, Bucknell, UC Davis
    16: Rider, Radford, Penn, Robert Morris, Jackson St., Morgan St.


    NOTES: 
    • With Villanova as the #1 overall seed, the bracket starts in the East region.
    • Seed order was not directly followed from the referenced list.  This is due to regional preference along the line.


    **Template available here.
    at
    Subscribe to: Posts (Atom)