Update - Cancellation

 Due to time constraints, I will be foregoing the bracket preview this season.  


Next year, I plan on creating an algorithm to automatically calculate the field of 68.  This will be stored in a Google Workbook and linked to the site.


The concept is to find like factors on each seed line and establish the bracket.  By default, I will use the past 2-3 seasons as a database, then aggregate NET ratings, Quadrant Wins, etc.  


See you next year!

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Prediction #2 - Sunday, 2/21

  





True Seeds





Seed List (Text)

  1. Gonzaga, Baylor, Michigan, Ohio State
  2. Villanova, Houston, Illinois, Alabama
  3. Oklahoma, West Virginia, Tennessee, Virginia
  4. Texas Tech, Iowa, Missouri, Texas
  5. Florida St., USC, Wisconsin, Creighton
  6. Virginia Tech, Arkansas, Purdue, Kansas
  7. Colorado, Florida, Rutgers, LSU
  8. Clemson, Loyola-Chicago, BYU, San Diego St.
  9. UCLA, Louisville, Oregon, Oklahoma St.
  10. Xavier, Boise St., Seton Hall, Minnesota
  11. Drake, VCU, St. Bonaventure, Syracuse, Colorado St., North Carolina
  12. Indiana, Connecticut, Belmont, Western Ky.
  13. Toledo, Winthrop, Colgate, UC Santa Barbara
  14. Wright St., UNC Greensboro, Liberty, Abilene Christian
  15. Vermont, Grand Canyon, Siena, South Dakota St.
  16. Eastern Washington, James Madison, Bryant, Texas St., Norfolk St., Prairie View A&M


HOW IT'S DONE:


  • Not very well.
  • List all current conference leaders and "select" them as the projected winners.
  • Referencing NET and KenPom, find the lowest ranked automatic bid and place at 68.
  • Review results from 2/13 - 2/20.
  • Move teams up/down along the seed line from last week.
    • 3 wins or 2 losses is considered high yield up/down respectively.
    • Inactive teams are used as a placeholder.  2 wins by the next lower result in a switch, then seed line adjustment.
    • Re-evaluate teams placed significantly different from the Matrix.
      • Clemson, Maryland, North Carolina, Oklahoma St.
  • Fill 1-12 by some algorithm (in my head) of AP, NET, and KenPom.
    • 13-16 are primarily based on NET rankings.

NOTES:
  • Bracket fill-in is auto-generated by the S-curve.
    • Teams are moved along the same seed line to avoid an opening round rematch.
  • For simplicity, First Four teams are placed on the 11 line.
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2021 Bracket Preview | 1st Projection

 




True Seeds







Seed List (Text)

  1. Gonzaga, Baylor, Michigan, Ohio State
  2. Illinois, Villanova, Alabama, Houston
  3. Virginia, West Virginia, Tennessee, Oklahoma,
  4. Iowa, Texas Tech, Texas, Missouri
  5. USC, Florida St., Wisconsin, Virginia Tech
  6. Creighton, Purdue, Colorado, Arkansas
  7. Florida, Kansas, Rutgers, Loyola-Chicago
  8. BYU, Louisville, LSU, San Diego St.
  9. Clemson, UCLA, Xavier, Minnesota
  10. Seton Hall, Oklahoma St., Oregon, St. Bonaventure
  11. Drake, Boise St., VCU, Colorado St., St. Louis, Indiana
  12. Utah St., Richmond, Belmont, Toledo
  13. UAB, Winthrop, UC Santa Barbara, Colgate
  14. UNC Greensboro, Liberty, Abilene Christian, Grand Canyon
  15. Siena, Cleveland St., UMBC, Northeastern
  16. Eastern Washington, South Dakota, Texas St., Bryant, Prairie View A&M, North Carolina A&T


HOW IT'S DONE:


  • Not very well.
  • Copy/Paste 1-4 from the Bracket Preview.
  • List all current conference leaders and "select" them as the projected winners.
  • Referencing NET and KenPom, find the lowest ranked automatic bid and place at 68.
  • Place "named considerations" from that goofy committee member on the 5 line.
  • Fill 5-12 by some algorithm (in my head) of AP, NET, and KenPom.

NOTES:
  • Team Sheets only has last year's data, so no additional sorting is done at this time.
  • Bracket fill-in will later be reworked to account for seed placement changes.
  • Self-imposing a new "rule" where multiple losses are required to move a team down a seed line.  The effect should be visible next week.
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2020 Projection | FINAL

SeedTeam1Team2Team3Team4Team5Team6
1GonzagaBaylorDaytonSan Diego St.
2Florida St.VillanovaMarylandCreighton
3LouisvilleSeton HallKentuckyOregon
4Michigan St.Ohio St.Penn St.Auburn
5WisconsinButlerIowaBYU
6ColoradoMichiganWest VirginiaIllinois
7VirginiaArizonaHoustonMarquette
8LSUSaint Mary'sFloridaArizona St.
9IndianaOklahomaUSCRutgers
10Texas TechStanfordUtah St.Providence
11CincinnatiWichita St.XavierRichmondNC StateTexas
12East Tennessee St.LibertyYaleStephen F. Austin
13VermontAkronNorth TexasBelmont
14New Mexico St.HofstraBradleyUC Irvine
15N. KentuckyNorth Dakota St.E. WashingtonArk. Little Rock
16BostonWinthropSienaRobert MorrisPrairie View A&MNC Central


How it was Done:
  • Maintaining the media's interpretation, Kansas and Duke were withdrawn.
  • Elevated each team from last projection respectively.
  • Recalled 1-4 seeds from the Bracket Preview.
  • Re-evaluated 1-11 by previous week, then Team Sheets.
    • Emphasis on Q1 wins and SOS.
  • Listed all current conference leaders and selected them as the projected winners.
    • Conference tournaments took precedent.
  • Bubble tiebreaker determined by Q3/Q4 losses.
  • Referencing NET and KenPom, found the lowest ranked automatic bid and placed at 68.

First Four Out:
  • Memphis, Northern Iowa, Arkansas, Mississippi St.

Soapbox: 
  • Cancellation of the tournament is absolute garbage.  TRASH.  JUNK.
    • I wonder if Joe Lunardi will be laid off...
  • I'll add the final bracket at a later time.
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2020 Projection - 3/8

SeedTeam1Team2Team3Team4Team5Team6
1KansasGonzagaBaylorDayton
2San Diego St.Florida St.VillanovaMaryland
3DukeCreightonLouisvilleSeton Hall
4KentuckyOregonMichigan St.Ohio St.
5Penn St.AuburnWisconsinButler
6IowaColoradoBYUMichigan
7West VirginiaIllinoisVirginiaArizona
8HoustonMarquetteLSUSaint Mary's
9FloridaIndianaArizona St.Oklahoma
10USCRutgersTexas TechStanford
11XavierUtah St.ProvidenceWichita St.RichmondNC State
12East Tennessee St.LibertyYaleStephen F. Austin
13VermontAkronNorth TexasBelmont
14New Mexico St.BradleyUC IrvineColgate
15Wright St.South Daktota St.E. WashingtonArk. Little Rock
16SienaWinthropWilliam & MarySt. Francis (PA)Prairie View A&MNC A&T
How it's Done:
  • Note 1-4 seeds from the Bracket Preview.
  • Re-evaluation of 1-11 by Team Sheets.
    • Emphasis on Q1 wins and SOS.
  • List all current conference leaders and "select" them as the projected winners.
    • Conference tournaments take precedent.
  • Bubble tiebreaker determined by Q3/Q4 losses.
  • Referencing NET and KenPom, find the lowest ranked automatic bid and place at 68.
  • Re-align "like" teams to a seed line, if possible.

 First Four Out:
  • Cincinnati, Texas, Memphis, Northern Iowa

Notes:

  • Only the Seed List will be (continuously) posted until Selection Sunday.  
  • If you want to manually "preview" the bracket, do as follows:
    1. Assign each section of the bracket by a Quadrant Number (1, 2, 3, 4)
    2. Slot each 1 seed by the Seed List matching the QN
    3. Slot the top 2 seed into QN 2
    4. Slot each remaining 2 seed into 1-3-4 respectively
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2020 Projection #5

SeedTeam1Team2Team3Team4Team5Team6
1KansasBaylorGonzagaSan Diego St.
2DaytonFlorida St.Seton HallVillanova
3MarylandDukeLouisvilleCreighton
4KentuckyOregonAuburnMichigan St.
5Ohio St.Penn St.IowaButler
6ColoradoBYUMichiganWisconsin
7West VirginiaArizonaIllinoisHouston
8MarquetteVirginiaLSUSaint Mary's
9FloridaIndianaArizona St.Texas Tech
10OklahomaRutgersUSCStanford
11XavierUCLAProvidenceWichita St.Utah St.Richmond
12East Tennessee St.LibertyYaleStephen F. Austin
13VermontNorth TexasBelmontNew Mexico St.
14BradleyUC IrvineWright St.Colgate
15Bowling GreenHofstraSouth Daktota St.E. Washington
16Ark. Little RockSienaWinthropSt. Francis (PA)Prairie View A&MNC A&T


How it's Done:
  • Note 1 seeds from the Bracket Preview.
  • Re-evaluation of 2-11 by Team Sheets.
    • Emphasis on Q1 wins and SOS.
  • Bubble consideration for teams with a NET ranking above 70.
  • List all current conference leaders and "select" them as the projected winners.
    • Conference tournaments take precedent.
  • Referencing NET and KenPom, find the lowest ranked automatic bid and place at 68.
First Four Out:

  • Cincinnati, NC State, Texas, Arkansas

Notes:

  • Only the Seed List will be (continuously) posted until Selection Sunday.  
  • If you want to manually "preview" the bracket, do as follows:
    1. Assign each section of the bracket by a Quadrant Number (1, 2, 3, 4)
    2. Slot each 1 seed by the Seed List matching the QN
    3. Slot the top 2 seed into QN 2
    4. Slot each remaining 2 seed into 1-3-4 respectively
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