Projection #4 - Week 13




Seed List
  1. Villanova, Virginia, Purdue, Kansas
  2. Duke, Xavier, Arizona, Auburn
  3. Texas Tech, West Virginia, Cincinnati, Oklahoma
  4. Clemson, Michigan St., North Carolina, Florida
  5. Tennessee, Kentucky, Gonzaga, Wichita St.
  6. Ohio St. Rhode Island, Miami, Seton Hall
  7. TCU, Michigan, Creighton, Louisville
  8. Nevada, Florida St. Arizona St., Texas
  9. Butler, St. Mary's, Arkansas, Texas A&M
  10. Marquette, Providence, Alabama, Kansas St.
  11. SMU, USC, W. Kentucky, Houston, Missouri, UCLA
  12. Middle Tennessee, New Mexico St., Belmont, Loyola-Chicago.
  13. Buffalo, Vermont, East Tennessee St., South Dakota
  14. UL-Lafayette, Wright St., Bucknell, Montana
  15. Coll. Charleston, Nicholls St., Penn, FGCU
  16. Rider, Radford, Wagner, Long Beach St., North Carolina A&T, Arkansas Pine-Bluff

NOTES:
  • Emphasis on head-to-head match-ups to keep seed line "true"
  • All "3rd conference rematch" scenarios are factored to assign teams by region.

OPINION:
  • St. Mary's (AP #13) is the toughest evaluation.  
    • Quality wins are New Mexico St. and Gonzaga
    • Undefeated in WCC.
    • Bad loss to Washington State
  • Syracuse needs a Top 50 RPI win to get in the field.  Currently, their best win is a home game against Buffalo.
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Projection #3 - Week 12




Seed List
  1. Villanova, Virginia, Purdue, Duke
  2. Kansas, Xavier, Arizona, West Virginia
  3. Oklahoma, North Carolina, Clemson, Auburn
  4. Michigan St., Texas Tech, Gonzaga, Cincinnati
  5. Arizona St., Florida, Wichita St., Ohio St.
  6. Tennessee, TCU, Miami, Kentucky
  7. Michigan, Florida St., Creighton, Seton Hall
  8. Rhode Island, Louisville, Nevada, Texas
  9. Arkansas, Butler, St. Mary's, Alabama
  10. Marquette, Texas A&M, Notre Dame, Missouri
  11. Providence, USC, Washington, SMU, Georgia, Middle Tennessee
  12. New Mexico St. Old Dominion, Belmont, Missouri St.
  13. South Dakota St., Buffalo, Vermont, East Tennessee St.
  14. UL-Lafayette, Wright St., William & Mary, Stephen F. Austin
  15. Montana, Bucknell, Penn, FGCU
  16. Iona, Hawaii, Radford, Wagner, North Carolina A&T, Arkansas Pine-Bluff

NOTES:
  • Regional Assignment is now a consideration.
  • The 11 seeds were shuffled to avoid possible rematches in the First/Second rounds.
  • Currently, the deciding factor to put a team IN the field is avoiding an ugly loss (sub-200 RPI).

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Details of Next Update


The next projection should be posted on Monday, 1/22.  Here is a preview of its predictive system:



  • Automatic Bids are still projected by current conference standings.
  • Teams are now placed by "True Seed"
    • Regional/Host sites subsequently listed
  • Starting at Seed 5, season/conference match-ups are considered to move teams along the line.
    • For example, if a potential rematch exists for a 4/5 in the same conference during the regular season, the 5 team must be moved per principle.
  • RPI Comparison heavily favored outside the Top 8.
  • "In" teams must have at least 1 quality win (Top 50 RPI).
    • The "scrubbing" process is emphasized only on the bubble.

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