Projection #10 - Conference Tournaments (3/16)







Seed List
  1. Virginia, North Carolina, Kentucky, Gonzaga
  2. Tennessee, Duke, Michigan St., Michigan
  3. Houston, Purdue, LSU, Texas Tech
  4. Kansas, Florida St., Kansas St., Wisconsin
  5. Marquette, Virginia Tech, Iowa St., Villanova
  6. Maryland, Mississippi St., Louisville, Buffalo
  7. Nevada, Auburn, Cincinnati, Wofford
  8. Iowa, Ole Miss, UCF, VCU
  9. Syracuse, Baylor, Minnesota, Washington
  10. Oklahoma, Seton Hall, Temple, Utah St.
  11. TCU, Florida, Ohio St., St. John's, Texas, NC State
  12. St. Mary's, Murray St., New Mexico St., Davidson
  13. Vermont, Northeastern, Yale, Liberty
  14. UC Irvine, Old Dominion, Montana, N. Kentucky
  15. Texas St., ColgateBradleyGardner Webb
  16. Sam Houston St., North Dakota St., Prairie View, IonaF. Dickinson, Norfolk St.

THE USUAL STUFF:
  • Teams in bold are automatic qualifiers.
  • The Seed List is accounting for any/all potential shifts by the committee.
  • Rematches are avoided whenever possible.

NOTES:
  • Recency bias factored in for team movement.
  • Bubble teams (re)analyzed by lack of bad losses, best wins, then common opponents.
OPINION:
  • St. John's, Texas, and NC State should be worried, if not already.
  • OUT: 
    • Alabama - beating UK once isn't enough to offset a loss to Georgia St.
    • Arizona St. - weak conference schedule and loss to Princeton
    • Belmont, Furman, and UNC Greensboro have resumes comparable to 12 seeds.
  • True Seeds will be flexed up/down on lines 5-8 to accommodate regional match-ups.
    • I foresee Louisville being impacted because they cannot play in the South.