Projection #4 - Week 13

Seed List
  1. Villanova, Virginia, Purdue, Kansas
  2. Duke, Xavier, Arizona, Auburn
  3. Texas Tech, West Virginia, Cincinnati, Oklahoma
  4. Clemson, Michigan St., North Carolina, Florida
  5. Tennessee, Kentucky, Gonzaga, Wichita St.
  6. Ohio St. Rhode Island, Miami, Seton Hall
  7. TCU, Michigan, Creighton, Louisville
  8. Nevada, Florida St. Arizona St., Texas
  9. Butler, St. Mary's, Arkansas, Texas A&M
  10. Marquette, Providence, Alabama, Kansas St.
  11. SMU, USC, W. Kentucky, Houston, Missouri, UCLA
  12. Middle Tennessee, New Mexico St., Belmont, Loyola-Chicago.
  13. Buffalo, Vermont, East Tennessee St., South Dakota
  14. UL-Lafayette, Wright St., Bucknell, Montana
  15. Coll. Charleston, Nicholls St., Penn, FGCU
  16. Rider, Radford, Wagner, Long Beach St., North Carolina A&T, Arkansas Pine-Bluff

  • Emphasis on head-to-head match-ups to keep seed line "true"
  • All "3rd conference rematch" scenarios are factored to assign teams by region.

  • St. Mary's (AP #13) is the toughest evaluation.  
    • Quality wins are New Mexico St. and Gonzaga
    • Undefeated in WCC.
    • Bad loss to Washington State
  • Syracuse needs a Top 50 RPI win to get in the field.  Currently, their best win is a home game against Buffalo.

Projection #3 - Week 12

Seed List
  1. Villanova, Virginia, Purdue, Duke
  2. Kansas, Xavier, Arizona, West Virginia
  3. Oklahoma, North Carolina, Clemson, Auburn
  4. Michigan St., Texas Tech, Gonzaga, Cincinnati
  5. Arizona St., Florida, Wichita St., Ohio St.
  6. Tennessee, TCU, Miami, Kentucky
  7. Michigan, Florida St., Creighton, Seton Hall
  8. Rhode Island, Louisville, Nevada, Texas
  9. Arkansas, Butler, St. Mary's, Alabama
  10. Marquette, Texas A&M, Notre Dame, Missouri
  11. Providence, USC, Washington, SMU, Georgia, Middle Tennessee
  12. New Mexico St. Old Dominion, Belmont, Missouri St.
  13. South Dakota St., Buffalo, Vermont, East Tennessee St.
  14. UL-Lafayette, Wright St., William & Mary, Stephen F. Austin
  15. Montana, Bucknell, Penn, FGCU
  16. Iona, Hawaii, Radford, Wagner, North Carolina A&T, Arkansas Pine-Bluff

  • Regional Assignment is now a consideration.
  • The 11 seeds were shuffled to avoid possible rematches in the First/Second rounds.
  • Currently, the deciding factor to put a team IN the field is avoiding an ugly loss (sub-200 RPI).

Details of Next Update

The next projection should be posted on Monday, 1/22.  Here is a preview of its predictive system:

  • Automatic Bids are still projected by current conference standings.
  • Teams are now placed by "True Seed"
    • Regional/Host sites subsequently listed
  • Starting at Seed 5, season/conference match-ups are considered to move teams along the line.
    • For example, if a potential rematch exists for a 4/5 in the same conference during the regular season, the 5 team must be moved per principle.
  • RPI Comparison heavily favored outside the Top 8.
  • "In" teams must have at least 1 quality win (Top 50 RPI).
    • The "scrubbing" process is emphasized only on the bubble.

Second Bracket Projection

Kansas State practically dribbled out the clock to let Kansas win.  Guess who's left out of the field?

Here's my projection:

Seed List:
1: Villanova, Virginia, Purdue, Oklahoma
2: Duke, Texas Tech, Wichita State, West Virginia
3: Michigan State, Kansas, Xavier, Gonzaga
4: Arizona, Cincinnati, Auburn, North Carolina
5: Kentucky, Arizona State, Seton Hall, Clemson
6: Tennessee, Ohio State, Michigan, TCU
7: Miami, Florida State, Creighton, Nevada
8: St. Mary’s, Florida, Louisville, Houston
9: Arkansas, Texas, Butler, Rhode Island
10: Marquette, Notre Dame, SMU, UCLA
11: USC, Middle Tennessee, Syracuse, Alabama, St. Bonaventure, Providence
12: Western Kentucky, New Mexico St., Missouri St., Murray St.
13: South Dakota St., Vermont, East Tennessee St., Buffalo
14: UL-Lafayette, Wright St., William & Mary, Stephen F. Austin
15: Montana, Bucknell, CS Fullerton, Florida Gulf Coast
16: Iona, Penn, Radford, Robert Morris, Jackson St., Bethune-Cookman

  • Automatic Bid differences from the first bracket are highlighted in yellow.
  • In comparison to the first bracket, "true seed" was considered before regional assignment.


Full Court Press is my favorite coaching style.  It happens to be a nice play-on-words for studying Bracketology.

A continuous work-in-progress, my concept to determine the bracket is based on the following:
  1. The NCAA Principles and Procedures
  2. Team Sheets
  3. AP Top 25
  4. NET Rankings
  5. How I believe the committee will achieve "reasonable balance" and keep the seed lines "as equal as possible."
  6. KenPom ratings
  7. Current non-power conference leaders
  8. The RPI
  9. Bubble team selection (or lack thereof) last season

Update (1/15/18): RPI is a consideration, despite my absolute hatred toward the metric.

Update (1/23/18): Team Sheets used by the Selection Committee are available, sorted 1-351 by RPI.  These will be a more primary focus going forward.

Update (2/11/18): Added NET Rankings.

About Me

Name: FCP
Location: Ohio

Never athletic enough to play, but I might be intelligent and boisterous enough to coach basketball at the collegiate level.  Despite having no coaching experience, like most (coaches), I developed early signs of male-pattern baldness.

I follow the game as a Gambler, Coach, Fan, and Analyst.

Key points:
  1. Always bet the over.
  2. A win is NOT a win.  How you win has more significance.
  3. Local/Hometown pride is not required.  If you want to be a fan, find a program that you can identify with and show support.

I have attended the NCAA First Four nearly every year since 2004. Here's some highlights of my experiences:
  • Interviewed as a "student" from Mount St. Mary's
  • Sat with MTSU President Sidney McPhee 
  • Inadvertently worked with the Providence Scout team 
  • Met Erin Andrews, Clark Kellogg, and Gregg Marshall

First Bracket Projection

Conference Play - LET'S GOOOOOOOO!

The Field of 68 is still a crapshoot, but Duke is a sure-thing on the OVER.  Here's my projection:

Seed List:
1: Villanova, Virginia, West Virginia, Michigan State
2: Duke, Purdue, Wichita State, Xavier
3: Oklahoma, Arizona State, Texas Tech, Seton Hall
4: Kansas, Cincinnati, Gonzaga, Clemson
5: TCU, Arizona, Kentucky, North Carolina
6: Miami, Auburn, Creighton, Notre Dame
7: Florida State, Tennessee, Ohio State, Nevada
8: Texas A&M, Michigan, Florida, St. Mary’s
9: Butler, Rhode Island, Missouri, Baylor
10: SMU, Texas, Georgia, Louisville
11: UCLA, Houston, Syracuse, Marquette, St. Bonaventure, Boise St.
12: New Mexico State, Old Dominion, Murray St., Missouri St.
13: Vermont, South Dakota St., East Tennessee St., Buffalo
14: Louisiana-Lafayette, Northern Kentucky, William and Mary, Lipscomb
15: Stephen F. Austin, Montana, Bucknell, UC Davis
16: Rider, Radford, Penn, Robert Morris, Jackson St., Morgan St.

  • With Villanova as the #1 overall seed, the bracket starts in the East region.
  • Seed order was not directly followed from the referenced list.  This is due to regional preference along the line.

**Template available here.