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Showing posts from February, 2018

Tournament Field - Active

I'm now updating The Field whenever possible.  The screenshot above was taken at the end of 2/26.

Refer here for the live feed.

Projection #8 - Week 17

Seed List
Virginia, Villanova, Xavier, KansasDuke, Auburn, Michigan St., PurdueNorth Carolina, Texas Tech, Cincinnati, ClemsonArizona, Tennessee, Ohio St., West VirginiaWichita St., Gonzaga, Rhode Island, KentuckyMichigan, Creighton, TCU, Texas A&MHouston, Arizona St., Arkansas, OklahomaNevada, Florida St., Missouri, ButlerAlabama, Florida, Seton Hall, MiamiNC State, St. Mary's, Providence, UCLASt. Bonaventure, Texas, Virginia Tech, Marquette, USC, BaylorMiddle Tennessee, New Mexico St., South Dakota St., BuffaloVermont, Loyola-Chicago, Murray St., UL-LafayetteN. Kentucky, UNC Greensboro, Montana, BucknellColl. Charleston, Penn, Rider, FGCUUC Irvine, UNC-Asheville, Wagner, Nicholls St., Ark. Pine-Bluff, Bethune-Cookman
NOTES: Until conference tournament play, Michigan St. can only be moved by other teams.No teams were flexed up/down seed lines.OPINION: I still don't buy into the OUT theory for UCLA.  Considering the loss of starters and Q1 wins (Kentucky, Arizona), they should…

Projection #7 - Week 16

Seed List
Virginia, Villanova, Xavier, KansasAuburn, Duke, Purdue, Texas TechMichigan St., North Carolina, Cincinnati, ClemsonArizona, Tennessee, Ohio St. West VirginiaGonzaga, Rhode Island, Wichita St., Arizona St.Michigan, Oklahoma, Texas A&M, KentuckyFlorida, Missouri, Houston, TCUNevada, Alabama, Creighton, Florida St.Arkansas, UCLA, Seton Hall, ButlerSt. Mary's, Texas, NC State, ProvidenceSyracuse, Kansas St., Baylor, Miami, USC, Virginia TechMiddle Tennessee, New Mexico St., South Dakota St., BuffaloVermont, Loyola-Chicago, Murray St., East Tennessee St.UL-Lafayette, Montana, Wright St., BucknellColl. Charleston, Penn, Rider, FGCUUCSB, UNC-Asheville, Wagner, Nicholls St., Grambling St., Savannah St.
NOTES: In comparison to the last projection, this is a complete overhaul based on "look."TCU and Creighton were flexed on seed lines (7/8) to avoid early conference rematches.
OPINION: Gonzaga is knocking on the door of the last #4 seed.  Winning the regular season confe…

Projection #6 - Week 15

Seed List
Virginia, Villanova, Xavier, PurdueAuburn, Kansas, Duke, CincinnatiClemson, Texas Tech, Michigan St., North CarolinaTennessee, Ohio St., Arizona, OklahomaKentucky, West Virginia, Rhode Island, FloridaArizona St., Gonzaga, Texas A&M, MiamiSt. Mary's, Texas, TCU, Seton HallFlorida St., Michigan, Creighton, ButlerArkansas, Wichita St., Missouri, UCLAAlabama, Syracuse, Nevada, LouisvilleUSC, New Mexico St., Utah, Houston, Washington, BaylorMiddle Tennessee, Boise St., South Dakota St., BuffaloVermont, Loyola-Chicago, Murray St., East Tennessee St.UL-Lafayette, Montana, Bucknell, N. KentuckyColl. Charleston, Penn, Rider, FGCUUCSB, UNC-Asheville, Wagner, Nicholls St., Grambling St., Savannah St.
NOTES: RPI is (more) heavily considered based on the Bracket Preview Show.This is the first projection with flexed seed lines (Florida St. / Seton Hall at 7/8).Seeds 12-16 are no longer placeholders by projected conference winner.
OPINION: The Selection Committee has basically thrown my…

RE: Bracket Preview Show

My prediction for the Bracket Preview was... in significant disagreement with the Selection Committee.

In terms of the Bracket Matrix, I scored 26 points out of a possible 48.


If you are looking for a reaction or Post-Game Interview, I have no comment at this time.  SBNation, however, has some feedback.


Stock Watch: 

While team performance and "value" will be heavily monitored (and debated) over the coming weeks, I have another agenda: Q1

Short for Quadrant 1, Q1 encompasses a teams wins on 3 factors:
Home - RPI 1-30Neutral - RPI 1-50Away - RPI 1-75

On 2/4, Virginia had an overall record of 7-1 against teams in Q1.  This can (and does) change throughout the season.  My concern is that how much the fluctuation is considered, if at all.
For example, if Louisville or Virginia Tech were to drop in the RPI (31 and 76 respectively), Virginia would have a Q1 record of 5-1 instead.  This raises several questions: Did the committee notice the change(s)?Are those teams actually regressi…

Bubble Watch (Updated Daily)

The active Bubble Watch is posted here.  While the screenshot was taken as a sample, the spreadsheet is updated whenever possible.

I am constantly working to encompass a variety of statistics unlike those "other guys."  Currently, data is composed as follows:
RecordStrength of Schedule (SOS)Non-Conference ScheduleQuadrant 1 Win/LossWins against the field (True Seeds 1-32)RPI Losses (101-200) / (201+) These metrics are likely to change after the Bracket Preview Show on 2/11.

Projection #5 - Week 14

Seed List
Villanova, Virginia, Purdue, XavierAuburn, Clemson, Duke, Texas TechArizona, Cincinnati, Oklahoma, KansasTennessee, North Carolina, Kentucky, West VirginiaRhode Island, Gonzaga, Ohio St., Michigan St.Seton Hall, Miami, Arizona St., St. Mary'sTexas, Louisville, TCU, Wichita St.Creighton, Michigan, Nevada, AlabamaFlorida St., Florida, Butler, Texas A&MArkansas, Missouri, Washington, ProvidenceUCLA, USC, NC State, Houston, South Carolina, MarquetteMiddle Tennessee, New Mexico St., Belmont, Loyola-Chicago.South Dakota St., Buffalo, Vermont, East Tennessee St.UL-Lafayette, Montana, Wright St., BucknellFGCU, College of Charleston, Penn, RiderUCSB, UNC-Asheville, Wagner, Nicholls St., North Carolina A&T, Arkansas Pine-Bluff
NOTES: All "3rd conference rematch" scenarios are (still) factored to assign teams by region.Seeds 12-16 are placeholders by projected conference winner, RPI, and Team Rank.
OPINION: Xavier and Auburn are very close.  Despite a blowout loss to V…