2019 Results / Recap

343.

RANK: 106 / 195


I now have a 1-1 record against Joe Lunardi.  

Quality Wins:
Congratulations to BRACKSKETBLOGS for the top score.

See you next season.
at

Final Projection - Selection Sunday | 5:45 p.m. EDT






Seed List
  1. Virginia, Duke, Gonzaga, Michigan St.
  2. North Carolina, Tennessee, Kentucky, Michigan
  3. Houston, LSU, Texas Tech, Florida St.
  4. Purdue, Kansas, Iowa St., Kansas St.
  5. Wisconsin, Villanova, Marquette, Virginia Tech
  6. Auburn, Mississippi St., Maryland, Louisville
  7. Buffalo, Nevada, Cincinnati, Wofford
  8. Iowa, Ole Miss, UCF, Syracuse
  9. VCU, Baylor, Minnesota, Seton Hall
  10. Utah St., Oklahoma, Washington, TCU
  11. Florida, Oregon, Temple, St. John's, Ohio St., Arizona St.
  12. St. Mary's, Murray St., New Mexico St., Vermont
  13. Yale, Liberty, St. Louis, Northeastern
  14. UC Irvine, Old Dominion, Montana, Georgia St.
  15. N. Kentucky., Colgate, Abilene Christian, Bradley
  16. Gardner Webb, North Dakota St., Prairie View, Iona, F. Dickinson, NC Central
THE USUAL STUFF:
  • Teams in bold are automatic qualifiers.
  • The Seed List is accounting for any/all potential shifts by the committee.
  • Rematches are avoided whenever possible.

NOTES:
  • Michigan St. takes the final #1 spot after winning the B1G tournament.
  • Recalled the bracket reveal, then reviewed the Top 4 seed lines again.
  • Point of Emphasis: Body of Work
OPINION:
  • Since placing Oregon at 11, I compared their resume against ASU and St. Mary's.  Common opponent puts ASU back in the field.  NC State is out.
  • The bubble was awful this year and highly susceptible to mid-major takeover.  Late bid steals maintain the status quo.
at

Projection #11 - Conference Tournaments (3/17)






Seed List
  1. Virginia, North Carolina, Tennessee, Gonzaga
  2. Duke, Kentucky, Michigan St., Michigan
  3. Houston, Purdue, LSU, Texas Tech
  4. Kansas, Florida St., Iowa St., Kansas St.
  5. Wisconsin, Villanova, Marquette, Virginia Tech
  6. Maryland, Mississippi St., Louisville, Buffalo
  7. Nevada, Auburn, Cincinnati, Wofford
  8. Iowa, Ole Miss, UCF, Syracuse
  9. VCU, Baylor, Minnesota, Seton Hall
  10. Washington, Oklahoma, Utah St., TCU
  11. Florida, Oregon, Temple, NC State, Ohio St., St. John's
  12. St. Mary's, Murray St., New Mexico St., Vermont
  13. Northeastern, St. Bonaventure, Yale, Liberty
  14. UC Irvine, Old Dominion, Montana, N. Kentucky
  15. Texas St., Colgate, Abilene Christian, Bradley
  16. Gardner Webb, North Dakota St., Prairie View, Iona, F. Dickinson, NC Central
THE USUAL STUFF:
  • Teams in bold are automatic qualifiers.
  • The Seed List is accounting for any/all potential shifts by the committee.
  • Rematches are avoided whenever possible.

NOTES:
  • Tried to favor regional assignments after balancing the Top 4 lines.
  • The "easy" move for the committee is to give Oregon an 11 seed out of the First Four.  
  • H2H results are (now?) the deciding factor in several cases.  
    • UNC > Gonzaga > Duke is the safe path on the 1 line.
    • Minnesota > Washington for the 9/10 spot.
    • Big 12 mess kicked Wisconsin down to the 5.
    • TCU > Florida to stay (more than) safe.
OPINION:
  • St. John's and NC State are the last teams in the field.
  • I'd love to put Belmont in, but all the work was done in Q4.
at

Projection #10 - Conference Tournaments (3/16)







Seed List
  1. Virginia, North Carolina, Kentucky, Gonzaga
  2. Tennessee, Duke, Michigan St., Michigan
  3. Houston, Purdue, LSU, Texas Tech
  4. Kansas, Florida St., Kansas St., Wisconsin
  5. Marquette, Virginia Tech, Iowa St., Villanova
  6. Maryland, Mississippi St., Louisville, Buffalo
  7. Nevada, Auburn, Cincinnati, Wofford
  8. Iowa, Ole Miss, UCF, VCU
  9. Syracuse, Baylor, Minnesota, Washington
  10. Oklahoma, Seton Hall, Temple, Utah St.
  11. TCU, Florida, Ohio St., St. John's, Texas, NC State
  12. St. Mary's, Murray St., New Mexico St., Davidson
  13. Vermont, Northeastern, Yale, Liberty
  14. UC Irvine, Old Dominion, Montana, N. Kentucky
  15. Texas St., Colgate, Bradley, Gardner Webb
  16. Sam Houston St., North Dakota St., Prairie View, Iona, F. Dickinson, Norfolk St.
THE USUAL STUFF:
  • Teams in bold are automatic qualifiers.
  • The Seed List is accounting for any/all potential shifts by the committee.
  • Rematches are avoided whenever possible.

NOTES:
  • Recency bias factored in for team movement.
  • Bubble teams (re)analyzed by lack of bad losses, best wins, then common opponents.
OPINION:
  • St. John's, Texas, and NC State should be worried, if not already.
  • OUT: 
    • Alabama - beating UK once isn't enough to offset a loss to Georgia St.
    • Arizona St. - weak conference schedule and loss to Princeton
    • Belmont, Furman, and UNC Greensboro have resumes comparable to 12 seeds.
  • True Seeds will be flexed up/down on lines 5-8 to accommodate regional match-ups.
    • I foresee Louisville being impacted because they cannot play in the South.
at

Projection #9 - Conference Tournaments (3/15)





Seed List
  1. Virginia, North Carolina, Kentucky, Gonzaga
  2. Tennessee, Duke, Michigan St., Michigan
  3. Purdue, Houston, LSU, Texas Tech
  4. Kansas, Florida St., Marquette, Kansas St.
  5. Wisconsin, Virginia Tech, Iowa St., Villanova
  6. Nevada, Maryland, Louisville, Mississippi St.
  7. Buffalo, Cincinnati, Auburn, Wofford
  8. Iowa, Ole Miss, UCF, VCU
  9. Syracuse, Baylor, Oklahoma, Washington
  10. Minnesota, Temple, St. John's, Seton Hall
  11. Ohio St., TCU, Arizona St., Texas, Florida, NC State
  12. Utah St., St. Mary's, Murray St., New Mexico St.
  13. Vermont, Northeastern, Yale, Liberty
  14. UC Irvine, Old Dominion, Montana, N. Kentucky
  15. Texas St., Colgate, Bradley, Gardner Webb
  16. Sam Houston St., North Dakota St., Prairie View, Iona, F. Dickinson, Norfolk St.
THE USUAL STUFF:
  • Teams in bold are automatic qualifiers.
  • The Seed List is accounting for any/all potential shifts by the committee.
  • Rematches are avoided whenever possible.
NOTES:
  • Re-re-re-evaluated Seeds 4-12 based on Team Sheets.
    • Numbers comp between teams formerly 10-11.
    • Q1 wins weighted by name recognition, Q2 considered as-is.
    • Q3 and Q4 losses used to move teams along seed line.
OPINION:
  • Emphasis on "not doing enough" will keep teams like Furman and Belmont out of the tournament.
at

Projection #8 - Conference Tournaments (3/14)





Seed List
  1. Virginia, North Carolina, Kentucky, Gonzaga
  2. Tennessee, Duke, Michigan St., Michigan
  3. Purdue, Houston, LSU, Texas Tech
  4. Kansas, Kansas St., Marquette, Florida St.
  5. Wisconsin, Nevada, Villanova, Virginia Tech
  6. Iowa St., Maryland, Louisville, Mississippi St.
  7. Buffalo, Cincinnati, Auburn, Wofford
  8. Iowa, Ole Miss, Baylor, UCF
  9. VCU, Oklahoma, Syracuse, Washington
  10. NC State, Texas, St. John's, Minnesota
  11. Florida, Ohio St., Seton Hall, TCU, Arizona St., Temple
  12. Utah St., St. Mary's, Murray St., New Mexico St.
  13. Vermont, Northeastern, Yale, Liberty
  14. UC Irvine, Old Dominion, Montana, N. Kentucky
  15. Texas St., Colgate, Bradley, Gardner Webb
  16. Sam Houston St., North Dakota St., Prairie View, Iona, F. Dickinson, Norfolk St.
THE USUAL STUFF:
  • Teams in bold are automatic qualifiers.
  • The Seed List is accounting for any/all potential shifts by the committee.
  • Rematches are avoided whenever possible.
NOTES:
  • Re-evaluated the "soft" bubble.
at

Projection #7 - Conference Tournaments (3/13)




Seed List
  1. Virginia, North Carolina, Kentucky, Gonzaga
  2. Tennessee, Duke, Michigan St., Michigan
  3. Purdue, Houston, LSU, Texas Tech
  4. Kansas, Kansas St., Marquette, Florida St.
  5. Wisconsin, Nevada, Villanova, Virginia Tech
  6. Iowa St., Maryland, Louisville, Mississippi St.
  7. Buffalo, Cincinnati, Auburn, Wofford
  8. Iowa, Ole Miss, Oklahoma, Baylor
  9. VCU, UCF, Syracuse, Washington
  10. NC State, St. John's, Minnesota, Texas
  11. Ohio St., Seton Hall, Arizona St., Florida, Temple, TCU
  12. Utah St., St. Mary's, Murray St., New Mexico St.
  13. Vermont, Northeastern, Yale, Liberty
  14. UC Irvine, Old Dominion, Montana, N. Kentucky
  15. Texas St., Colgate, Bradley, Gardner Webb
  16. Sam Houston St., North Dakota St., Prairie View, Iona, F. Dickinson, Norfolk St.
THE USUAL STUFF:
  • Teams in bold are automatic qualifiers.
  • The Seed List is accounting for any/all potential shifts by the committee.
  • Rematches are avoided whenever possible.
NOTES:
  • Seeds 12-16 assigned primarily based on NET ranking.
  • St. Mary's "steals" a bid from Alabama.

OPINION:
  • Arizona St. is in more trouble than I initially thought.  Q4 losses put them as "Last Four In."
at

Projection #6 - Conference Tournaments (3/12)





Seed List
  1. Virginia, Gonzaga, North Carolina, Kentucky
  2. Tennessee, Duke, Michigan St., Michigan
  3. Purdue, Houston, LSU, Texas Tech
  4. Kansas, Kansas St., Marquette, Florida St.
  5. Wisconsin, Nevada, Villanova, Virginia Tech
  6. Iowa St., Maryland, Louisville, Mississippi St.
  7. Buffalo, Cincinnati, Auburn, Wofford
  8. Iowa, Ole Miss, Oklahoma, Baylor
  9. VCU, UCF, Syracuse, Washington
  10. NC State, St. John's, Minnesota, Texas
  11. Ohio St., Seton Hall, Florida, Temple, TCU, Alabama
  12. Arizona St., Utah St., Murray St., New Mexico St.
  13. Hofstra, Vermont, Yale, Liberty
  14. UC Irvine, Old Dominion, Montana, South Dakota St.
  15. N. Kentucky, Texas St., Colgate, Bradley
  16. Gardner Webb, Sam Houston St., Prairie View, Iona, F. Dickinson, Norfolk St.
THE USUAL STUFF:
  • Teams in bold are automatic qualifiers.
  • The Seed List is accounting for any/all potential shifts by the committee.
  • Rematches are avoided whenever possible.
NOTES:
  • Scrubbed Seed Lines 1 and 2 from yesterday.
    • Virginia moved to overall #1 based on favorite to win the ACC tournament.
  • Seeds 13-16 assigned primarily based on NET ranking.
at

Projection #5 - End of Season / Conference Tournaments





Seed List
  1. Gonzaga, Virginia, Tennessee, North Carolina
  2. Duke, Kentucky, Michigan St., Michigan
  3. Purdue, Houston, LSU, Texas Tech
  4. Kansas, Kansas St., Marquette, Florida St.
  5. Wisconsin, Nevada, Villanova, Virginia Tech
  6. Iowa St., Maryland, Louisville, Mississippi St.
  7. Buffalo, Cincinnati, Auburn, Iowa
  8. Ole Miss, Oklahoma, Wofford, Baylor
  9. VCU, UCF, Syracuse, Washington
  10. NC State, St. John's, Minnesota, Texas
  11. Ohio St. Seton Hall, Florida, Temple, TCU, Alabama
  12. Arizona St., Utah St., Murray St., New Mexico St.
  13. Hofstra, Vermont, Yale, Liberty
  14. UC Irvine, Old Dominion, Montana, South Dakota St.
  15. N. Kentucky, Texas St., Colgate, Bradley
  16. Gardner Webb, Sam Houston St., Iona, Prairie View, F. Dickinson, Norfolk St.
THE USUAL STUFF:
  • Teams in bold are automatic qualifiers.
  • The Seed List is accounting for any/all potential shifts by the committee.
  • Rematches are avoided whenever possible.
NOTES:
  • How 'bout that template, eh?
  • Rework based on NET rankings, Q1 wins, and the "Nevada" effect.
    • Merely, where the committee placed Nevada in the reveal.  This helps to project the seeding for Buffalo, Wofford, and Washington
    • Texas/Ohio St. switched 11/10 respectively.  This avoided B1G rematches in the first round.  
    • Arizona St. avoids the First Four, but moves to 12 ahead of Utah St. due to H2H.
OPINION:
  • TCU and Alabama (last 2 in) are the only teams not considered as "safe."
at

Projection #4 - Week 18 (2019)







Seed List
  1. Gonzaga, Duke, Virginia, Tennessee
  2. Kentucky, North Carolina, Michigan, Purdue
  3. Michigan St., Houston, Marquette, Kansas
  4. LSU, Kansas St., Texas Tech, Wisconsin
  5. Florida St. Iowa St. Nevada, Villanova
  6. Maryland, Louisville, Virginia Tech, Cincinnati
  7. Buffalo, Iowa, Mississippi St., Ole Miss
  8. Auburn, Baylor, Oklahoma, Wofford
  9. Syracuse, St. John's, Texas, VCU
  10. UCF, Ohio St., Washington, TCU
  11. Utah St., Florida, Arizona St., Clemson, Minnesota, Temple
  12. NC State, Alabama, Belmont, New Mexico St.
  13. Vermont, Hofstra, Yale, Old Dominion
  14. Liberty, Drake, Radford, UC Irvine
  15. Montana, Texas St., N. Kentucky, South Dakota St.
  16. Colgate, Sam Houston St., Norfolk St., F. Dickinson, Iona, Prairie View

NOTES:
  • This was done on 3/4, but uploaded late.
  • Teams in bold are projected automatic qualifiers.
  • Emphasis on "body of work," then recency bias.
  • The Seed List is accounting for any/all potential shifts by the committee.
    • The "Last Four In" were reorganized to avoid rematches from conference play.  
    • NC State and Alabama got a pass, but were moved to the 12 line.
at
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