RE: Bracket Preview Show


My prediction for the Bracket Preview was... in significant disagreement with the Selection Committee.

In terms of the Bracket Matrix, I scored 26 points out of a possible 48.


If you are looking for a reaction or Post-Game Interview, I have no comment at this time.  SBNation, however, has some feedback.


Stock Watch: 

While team performance and "value" will be heavily monitored (and debated) over the coming weeks, I have another agenda: Q1

Short for Quadrant 1, Q1 encompasses a teams wins on 3 factors:
  1. Home - RPI 1-30
  2. Neutral - RPI 1-50
  3. Away - RPI 1-75


On 2/4, Virginia had an overall record of 7-1 against teams in Q1.  This can (and does) change throughout the season.  My concern is that how much the fluctuation is considered, if at all.

For example, if Louisville or Virginia Tech were to drop in the RPI (31 and 76 respectively), Virginia would have a Q1 record of 5-1 instead.  This raises several questions:
  • Did the committee notice the change(s)?
  • Are those teams actually regressing?
  • Should those wins carry the same weight despite the movement between quadrants?
I believe this metric and trend will favor a team on the bubble.  A week ago, SMU had 2 wins against teams perceived to be on the bubble (Boise St., USC).  Theoretically, these teams can improve and move into Q1.  Based on one perspective, this can "backdoor" SMU into the field.


The takeaway is how the committee determines the value of Quadrant 1 - by arbitrary numbers set in place or the box scores.

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Bubble Watch (Updated Daily)



The active Bubble Watch is posted here.  While the screenshot was taken as a sample, the spreadsheet is updated whenever possible.

I am constantly working to encompass a variety of statistics unlike those "other guys."  Currently, data is composed as follows:
  1. Record
  2. Strength of Schedule (SOS)
  3. Non-Conference Schedule
  4. Quadrant 1 Win/Loss
  5. Wins against the field (True Seeds 1-32)
  6. RPI Losses (101-200) / (201+)
These metrics are likely to change after the Bracket Preview Show on 2/11.
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Projection #5 - Week 14





Seed List
  1. Villanova, Virginia, Purdue, Xavier
  2. Auburn, Clemson, Duke, Texas Tech
  3. Arizona, Cincinnati, Oklahoma, Kansas
  4. Tennessee, North Carolina, Kentucky, West Virginia
  5. Rhode Island, Gonzaga, Ohio St., Michigan St.
  6. Seton Hall, Miami, Arizona St., St. Mary's
  7. Texas, Louisville, TCU, Wichita St.
  8. Creighton, Michigan, Nevada, Alabama
  9. Florida St., Florida, Butler, Texas A&M
  10. Arkansas, Missouri, Washington, Providence
  11. UCLA, USC, NC State, Houston, South Carolina, Marquette
  12. Middle Tennessee, New Mexico St., Belmont, Loyola-Chicago.
  13. South Dakota St., Buffalo, Vermont, East Tennessee St.
  14. UL-Lafayette, Montana, Wright St., Bucknell
  15. FGCU, College of Charleston, Penn, Rider
  16. UCSB, UNC-Asheville, Wagner, Nicholls St., North Carolina A&T, Arkansas Pine-Bluff

NOTES:
  • All "3rd conference rematch" scenarios are (still) factored to assign teams by region.
  • Seeds 12-16 are placeholders by projected conference winner, RPI, and Team Rank.

OPINION:
  • Xavier and Auburn are very close.  Despite a blowout loss to Villanova, quality wins favor XU to secure the final #1 seed.
  • Today, Kansas St. and Virginia Tech are the same evaluation.  Both are OUT.
  • Michigan St. continues to be favored by the BPI.  With only one quality win (UNC), they are placed on the 5 line.
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