Tournament Field - Active




I'm now updating The Field whenever possible.  The screenshot above was taken at the end of 2/26.

Refer here for the live feed.
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Projection #8 - Week 17





Seed List
  1. Virginia, Villanova, Xavier, Kansas
  2. Duke, Auburn, Michigan St., Purdue
  3. North Carolina, Texas Tech, Cincinnati, Clemson
  4. Arizona, Tennessee, Ohio St., West Virginia
  5. Wichita St., Gonzaga, Rhode Island, Kentucky
  6. Michigan, Creighton, TCU, Texas A&M
  7. Houston, Arizona St., Arkansas, Oklahoma
  8. Nevada, Florida St., Missouri, Butler
  9. Alabama, Florida, Seton Hall, Miami
  10. NC State, St. Mary's, Providence, UCLA
  11. St. Bonaventure, Texas, Virginia Tech, Marquette, USC, Baylor
  12. Middle Tennessee, New Mexico St., South Dakota St., Buffalo
  13. Vermont, Loyola-Chicago, Murray St., UL-Lafayette
  14. N. Kentucky, UNC Greensboro, Montana, Bucknell
  15. Coll. Charleston, Penn, Rider, FGCU
  16. UC Irvine, UNC-Asheville, Wagner, Nicholls St., Ark. Pine-Bluff, Bethune-Cookman

NOTES:
  • Until conference tournament play, Michigan St. can only be moved by other teams.
  • No teams were flexed up/down seed lines.
OPINION:
  • I still don't buy into the OUT theory for UCLA.  Considering the loss of starters and Q1 wins (Kentucky, Arizona), they should be in the field.
  • Florida St. and NC State have become very similar.  I think the committee will favor FSU by recent AP ranking.
  • Villanova's loss on Saturday simply closed the gap on the 1-line.  The season sweep over Xavier maintains the second spot.
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Projection #7 - Week 16





Seed List
  1. Virginia, Villanova, Xavier, Kansas
  2. Auburn, Duke, Purdue, Texas Tech
  3. Michigan St., North Carolina, Cincinnati, Clemson
  4. Arizona, Tennessee, Ohio St. West Virginia
  5. Gonzaga, Rhode Island, Wichita St., Arizona St.
  6. Michigan, Oklahoma, Texas A&M, Kentucky
  7. Florida, Missouri, Houston, TCU
  8. Nevada, Alabama, Creighton, Florida St.
  9. Arkansas, UCLA, Seton Hall, Butler
  10. St. Mary's, Texas, NC State, Providence
  11. Syracuse, Kansas St., Baylor, Miami, USC, Virginia Tech
  12. Middle Tennessee, New Mexico St., South Dakota St., Buffalo
  13. Vermont, Loyola-Chicago, Murray St., East Tennessee St.
  14. UL-Lafayette, Montana, Wright St., Bucknell
  15. Coll. Charleston, Penn, Rider, FGCU
  16. UCSB, UNC-Asheville, Wagner, Nicholls St., Grambling St., Savannah St.

NOTES:
  • In comparison to the last projection, this is a complete overhaul based on "look."
  • TCU and Creighton were flexed on seed lines (7/8) to avoid early conference rematches.

OPINION:
  • Gonzaga is knocking on the door of the last #4 seed.  Winning the regular season conference should put them there.
  • The "too many losses" argument starts with the #6 seeds.  Michigan holds this spot simply because they have less harm done than others below them.
  • Compared to other teams on the bubble, USC should be safe since their non-conference record isn't below 300.  Kansas St. and Virginia Tech are... lucky(?) right now.
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Projection #6 - Week 15






Seed List
  1. Virginia, Villanova, Xavier, Purdue
  2. Auburn, Kansas, Duke, Cincinnati
  3. Clemson, Texas Tech, Michigan St., North Carolina
  4. Tennessee, Ohio St., Arizona, Oklahoma
  5. Kentucky, West Virginia, Rhode Island, Florida
  6. Arizona St., Gonzaga, Texas A&M, Miami
  7. St. Mary's, Texas, TCU, Seton Hall
  8. Florida St., Michigan, Creighton, Butler
  9. Arkansas, Wichita St., Missouri, UCLA
  10. Alabama, Syracuse, Nevada, Louisville
  11. USC, New Mexico St., Utah, Houston, Washington, Baylor
  12. Middle Tennessee, Boise St., South Dakota St., Buffalo
  13. Vermont, Loyola-Chicago, Murray St., East Tennessee St.
  14. UL-Lafayette, Montana, Bucknell, N. Kentucky
  15. Coll. Charleston, Penn, Rider, FGCU
  16. UCSB, UNC-Asheville, Wagner, Nicholls St., Grambling St., Savannah St.

NOTES:
  • RPI is (more) heavily considered based on the Bracket Preview Show.
  • This is the first projection with flexed seed lines (Florida St. / Seton Hall at 7/8).
  • Seeds 12-16 are no longer placeholders by projected conference winner.

OPINION:
  • The Selection Committee has basically thrown my evaluation process out the window.  I'm throwing darts at this point.
  • Lack of a non-power conference leader in the Top 4 pushes the WCC back.  Rhode Island is safe at 5 with no bad losses.
  • Despite a lack of Q1 wins, Wichita St. benefits from RPI history and is in the field.
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RE: Bracket Preview Show


My prediction for the Bracket Preview was... in significant disagreement with the Selection Committee.

In terms of the Bracket Matrix, I scored 26 points out of a possible 48.


If you are looking for a reaction or Post-Game Interview, I have no comment at this time.  SBNation, however, has some feedback.


Stock Watch: 

While team performance and "value" will be heavily monitored (and debated) over the coming weeks, I have another agenda: Q1

Short for Quadrant 1, Q1 encompasses a teams wins on 3 factors:
  1. Home - RPI 1-30
  2. Neutral - RPI 1-50
  3. Away - RPI 1-75


On 2/4, Virginia had an overall record of 7-1 against teams in Q1.  This can (and does) change throughout the season.  My concern is that how much the fluctuation is considered, if at all.

For example, if Louisville or Virginia Tech were to drop in the RPI (31 and 76 respectively), Virginia would have a Q1 record of 5-1 instead.  This raises several questions:
  • Did the committee notice the change(s)?
  • Are those teams actually regressing?
  • Should those wins carry the same weight despite the movement between quadrants?
I believe this metric and trend will favor a team on the bubble.  A week ago, SMU had 2 wins against teams perceived to be on the bubble (Boise St., USC).  Theoretically, these teams can improve and move into Q1.  Based on one perspective, this can "backdoor" SMU into the field.


The takeaway is how the committee determines the value of Quadrant 1 - by arbitrary numbers set in place or the box scores.

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Bubble Watch (Updated Daily)



The active Bubble Watch is posted here.  While the screenshot was taken as a sample, the spreadsheet is updated whenever possible.

I am constantly working to encompass a variety of statistics unlike those "other guys."  Currently, data is composed as follows:
  1. Record
  2. Strength of Schedule (SOS)
  3. Non-Conference Schedule
  4. Quadrant 1 Win/Loss
  5. Wins against the field (True Seeds 1-32)
  6. RPI Losses (101-200) / (201+)
These metrics are likely to change after the Bracket Preview Show on 2/11.
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Projection #5 - Week 14





Seed List
  1. Villanova, Virginia, Purdue, Xavier
  2. Auburn, Clemson, Duke, Texas Tech
  3. Arizona, Cincinnati, Oklahoma, Kansas
  4. Tennessee, North Carolina, Kentucky, West Virginia
  5. Rhode Island, Gonzaga, Ohio St., Michigan St.
  6. Seton Hall, Miami, Arizona St., St. Mary's
  7. Texas, Louisville, TCU, Wichita St.
  8. Creighton, Michigan, Nevada, Alabama
  9. Florida St., Florida, Butler, Texas A&M
  10. Arkansas, Missouri, Washington, Providence
  11. UCLA, USC, NC State, Houston, South Carolina, Marquette
  12. Middle Tennessee, New Mexico St., Belmont, Loyola-Chicago.
  13. South Dakota St., Buffalo, Vermont, East Tennessee St.
  14. UL-Lafayette, Montana, Wright St., Bucknell
  15. FGCU, College of Charleston, Penn, Rider
  16. UCSB, UNC-Asheville, Wagner, Nicholls St., North Carolina A&T, Arkansas Pine-Bluff

NOTES:
  • All "3rd conference rematch" scenarios are (still) factored to assign teams by region.
  • Seeds 12-16 are placeholders by projected conference winner, RPI, and Team Rank.

OPINION:
  • Xavier and Auburn are very close.  Despite a blowout loss to Villanova, quality wins favor XU to secure the final #1 seed.
  • Today, Kansas St. and Virginia Tech are the same evaluation.  Both are OUT.
  • Michigan St. continues to be favored by the BPI.  With only one quality win (UNC), they are placed on the 5 line.
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