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2018-2019 Season

Welcome back. 

The Top 16 projections will be released on Monday, January 7, 2019.  Full bracket projections will be issued after the Bracket Preview Show (February). 

Stay tuned!

Results / Recap

345.
RANK: 65 / 187

Quality Wins:
ESPN - Joe LunardiCBS - Jerry Palm Congratulations to 1-3-1 Sports, CrazySportsDude, Gade Pool, and M-SPORTSFANS for the top score.

See you next season.

Projection - Selection Sunday (FINAL)

DONE.

Click here for the full version.




Seed List
VirginiaVillanovaKansas, XavierNorth Carolina, Duke, Cincinnati, Michigan St.Auburn, Tennessee, Purdue, MichiganWest Virginia, Texas Tech, ArizonaGonzagaKentucky, Wichita St., Clemson, Ohio St.Florida, Arkansas, Houston, TCUMiami, Texas A&M, Seton Hall, MissouriProvidence, Nevada, Rhode Island, Virginia TechFlorida St. Creighton, UCLA, Kansas St.Butler, NC State, Texas, AlabamaNew Mexico St.Loyola-Chicago, St. Mary's, St. Bonaventure, Oklahoma, Arizona St.San Diego St.South Dakota St., DavidsonBuffaloMurray St.MarshallColl. CharlestonUNC-GreensboroBucknellMontanaWright St.IonaGeorgia St.CS FullertonUMBC, PennLipscombStephen F. AustinRadfordTexas SouthernLIU-BrooklynNC Central
NOTES: Teams in bold are automatic qualifiers.The Seed List has accounted for any/all potential shifts by the committee.  What you see is what you get.OPINION: I really hate this shit and am glad this nightmare is over.

Projection #10-??? - 3/10 (Gameday)

Given the workload today, I've published the bracket from Google Sheets.  Click here for the full version.  This will be updated every couple of hours.




As of Saturday, 3/10 @ 12:00 p.m. EST:


Seed List
Virginia, Villanova, Kansas, XavierNorth Carolina, Duke, Cincinnati, AuburnMichigan St., Tennessee, Purdue, ArizonaMichigan, West Virginia, Texas Tech, Wichita StGonzaga, Clemson, Kentucky, Ohio St.Florida, TCU, Arkansas, MiamiHouston, Texas A&M, Nevada, Seton HallRhode Island, Missouri, Providence, Virginia TechFlorida St. Creighton, Kansas St., UCLANC State, Butler, Texas, AlabamaOklahoma, Loyola-Chicago, St. Bonaventure, St. Mary's, Arizona St. MarquetteNew Mexico St., Western Ky., South Dakota St., BuffaloMurray St., San Diego St., Vermont, UL-LafayetteColl. CharlestonUNC Greensboro, Bucknell, MontanaWright St., Iona, CS Fullerton, PennLipscomb, Radford, LIU-Brooklyn, Nicholls St., Hampton, Ark. Pine-Bluff
NOTES: The Seed List is no longer "true."  Some teams have…

Projection #9 - Week 18

Seed List
Virginia, Xavier, Villanova, KansasDuke, Auburn, Cincinnati, Michigan St.North Carolina, Tennessee, Purdue, ClemsonArizona, Michigan, Texas Tech, Wichita St.Gonzaga, West Virginia, Ohio St., KentuckyTCU, Houston, Florida, NevadaCreighton, Arkansas, Florida St. Rhode IslandTexas A&M, Miami, Oklahoma, Seton HallMissouri, Butler, St. Mary's, NC StateArizona St., Virginia Tech, Providence, St. BonaventureSyracuse, Alabama, Louisville, Marquette, USC, TexasMiddle Tennessee, New Mexico St., Loyola-Chicago, BuffaloSouth Dakota St., Murray St., Vermont, UL-LafayetteWright St., UNC Greensboro, Montana, BucknellColl. Charleston, Penn, Iona, LipscombUC Irvine, Radford, Wagner, Nicholls St., Ark. Pine-Bluff, Bethune-Cookman
NOTES: Teams in bold are automatic qualifiers.First Four teams are not listed by "True Seed."  Regional assignment is reflective in the bracket.OPINION: If there's a line to draw and separate the field, it's clearly between seeds 5 and 6.I belie…

Tournament Field - Active

I'm now updating The Field whenever possible.  The screenshot above was taken at the end of 2/26.

Refer here for the live feed.

Projection #8 - Week 17

Seed List
Virginia, Villanova, Xavier, KansasDuke, Auburn, Michigan St., PurdueNorth Carolina, Texas Tech, Cincinnati, ClemsonArizona, Tennessee, Ohio St., West VirginiaWichita St., Gonzaga, Rhode Island, KentuckyMichigan, Creighton, TCU, Texas A&MHouston, Arizona St., Arkansas, OklahomaNevada, Florida St., Missouri, ButlerAlabama, Florida, Seton Hall, MiamiNC State, St. Mary's, Providence, UCLASt. Bonaventure, Texas, Virginia Tech, Marquette, USC, BaylorMiddle Tennessee, New Mexico St., South Dakota St., BuffaloVermont, Loyola-Chicago, Murray St., UL-LafayetteN. Kentucky, UNC Greensboro, Montana, BucknellColl. Charleston, Penn, Rider, FGCUUC Irvine, UNC-Asheville, Wagner, Nicholls St., Ark. Pine-Bluff, Bethune-Cookman
NOTES: Until conference tournament play, Michigan St. can only be moved by other teams.No teams were flexed up/down seed lines.OPINION: I still don't buy into the OUT theory for UCLA.  Considering the loss of starters and Q1 wins (Kentucky, Arizona), they should…

Projection #7 - Week 16

Seed List
Virginia, Villanova, Xavier, KansasAuburn, Duke, Purdue, Texas TechMichigan St., North Carolina, Cincinnati, ClemsonArizona, Tennessee, Ohio St. West VirginiaGonzaga, Rhode Island, Wichita St., Arizona St.Michigan, Oklahoma, Texas A&M, KentuckyFlorida, Missouri, Houston, TCUNevada, Alabama, Creighton, Florida St.Arkansas, UCLA, Seton Hall, ButlerSt. Mary's, Texas, NC State, ProvidenceSyracuse, Kansas St., Baylor, Miami, USC, Virginia TechMiddle Tennessee, New Mexico St., South Dakota St., BuffaloVermont, Loyola-Chicago, Murray St., East Tennessee St.UL-Lafayette, Montana, Wright St., BucknellColl. Charleston, Penn, Rider, FGCUUCSB, UNC-Asheville, Wagner, Nicholls St., Grambling St., Savannah St.
NOTES: In comparison to the last projection, this is a complete overhaul based on "look."TCU and Creighton were flexed on seed lines (7/8) to avoid early conference rematches.
OPINION: Gonzaga is knocking on the door of the last #4 seed.  Winning the regular season confe…

Projection #6 - Week 15

Seed List
Virginia, Villanova, Xavier, PurdueAuburn, Kansas, Duke, CincinnatiClemson, Texas Tech, Michigan St., North CarolinaTennessee, Ohio St., Arizona, OklahomaKentucky, West Virginia, Rhode Island, FloridaArizona St., Gonzaga, Texas A&M, MiamiSt. Mary's, Texas, TCU, Seton HallFlorida St., Michigan, Creighton, ButlerArkansas, Wichita St., Missouri, UCLAAlabama, Syracuse, Nevada, LouisvilleUSC, New Mexico St., Utah, Houston, Washington, BaylorMiddle Tennessee, Boise St., South Dakota St., BuffaloVermont, Loyola-Chicago, Murray St., East Tennessee St.UL-Lafayette, Montana, Bucknell, N. KentuckyColl. Charleston, Penn, Rider, FGCUUCSB, UNC-Asheville, Wagner, Nicholls St., Grambling St., Savannah St.
NOTES: RPI is (more) heavily considered based on the Bracket Preview Show.This is the first projection with flexed seed lines (Florida St. / Seton Hall at 7/8).Seeds 12-16 are no longer placeholders by projected conference winner.
OPINION: The Selection Committee has basically thrown my…

RE: Bracket Preview Show

My prediction for the Bracket Preview was... in significant disagreement with the Selection Committee.

In terms of the Bracket Matrix, I scored 26 points out of a possible 48.


If you are looking for a reaction or Post-Game Interview, I have no comment at this time.  SBNation, however, has some feedback.


Stock Watch: 

While team performance and "value" will be heavily monitored (and debated) over the coming weeks, I have another agenda: Q1

Short for Quadrant 1, Q1 encompasses a teams wins on 3 factors:
Home - RPI 1-30Neutral - RPI 1-50Away - RPI 1-75

On 2/4, Virginia had an overall record of 7-1 against teams in Q1.  This can (and does) change throughout the season.  My concern is that how much the fluctuation is considered, if at all.
For example, if Louisville or Virginia Tech were to drop in the RPI (31 and 76 respectively), Virginia would have a Q1 record of 5-1 instead.  This raises several questions: Did the committee notice the change(s)?Are those teams actually regressi…

Bubble Watch (Updated Daily)

The active Bubble Watch is posted here.  While the screenshot was taken as a sample, the spreadsheet is updated whenever possible.

I am constantly working to encompass a variety of statistics unlike those "other guys."  Currently, data is composed as follows:
RecordStrength of Schedule (SOS)Non-Conference ScheduleQuadrant 1 Win/LossWins against the field (True Seeds 1-32)RPI Losses (101-200) / (201+) These metrics are likely to change after the Bracket Preview Show on 2/11.

Projection #5 - Week 14

Seed List
Villanova, Virginia, Purdue, XavierAuburn, Clemson, Duke, Texas TechArizona, Cincinnati, Oklahoma, KansasTennessee, North Carolina, Kentucky, West VirginiaRhode Island, Gonzaga, Ohio St., Michigan St.Seton Hall, Miami, Arizona St., St. Mary'sTexas, Louisville, TCU, Wichita St.Creighton, Michigan, Nevada, AlabamaFlorida St., Florida, Butler, Texas A&MArkansas, Missouri, Washington, ProvidenceUCLA, USC, NC State, Houston, South Carolina, MarquetteMiddle Tennessee, New Mexico St., Belmont, Loyola-Chicago.South Dakota St., Buffalo, Vermont, East Tennessee St.UL-Lafayette, Montana, Wright St., BucknellFGCU, College of Charleston, Penn, RiderUCSB, UNC-Asheville, Wagner, Nicholls St., North Carolina A&T, Arkansas Pine-Bluff
NOTES: All "3rd conference rematch" scenarios are (still) factored to assign teams by region.Seeds 12-16 are placeholders by projected conference winner, RPI, and Team Rank.
OPINION: Xavier and Auburn are very close.  Despite a blowout loss to V…

Projection #4 - Week 13

Seed List
Villanova, Virginia, Purdue, KansasDuke, Xavier, Arizona, AuburnTexas Tech, West Virginia, Cincinnati, OklahomaClemson, Michigan St., North Carolina, FloridaTennessee, Kentucky, Gonzaga, Wichita St.Ohio St. Rhode Island, Miami, Seton HallTCU, Michigan, Creighton, LouisvilleNevada, Florida St. Arizona St., TexasButler, St. Mary's, Arkansas, Texas A&MMarquette, Providence, Alabama, Kansas St.SMU, USC, W. Kentucky, Houston, Missouri, UCLAMiddle Tennessee, New Mexico St., Belmont, Loyola-Chicago.Buffalo, Vermont, East Tennessee St., South DakotaUL-Lafayette, Wright St., Bucknell, MontanaColl. Charleston, Nicholls St., Penn, FGCURider, Radford, Wagner, Long Beach St., North Carolina A&T, Arkansas Pine-Bluff
NOTES: Emphasis on head-to-head match-ups to keep seed line "true"All "3rd conference rematch" scenarios are factored to assign teams by region.
OPINION: St. Mary's (AP #13) is the toughest evaluation.  Quality wins are New Mexico St. and Gonzaga…

Projection #3 - Week 12

Seed List
Villanova, Virginia, Purdue, DukeKansas, Xavier, Arizona, West VirginiaOklahoma, North Carolina, Clemson, AuburnMichigan St., Texas Tech, Gonzaga, CincinnatiArizona St., Florida, Wichita St., Ohio St.Tennessee, TCU, Miami, KentuckyMichigan, Florida St., Creighton, Seton HallRhode Island, Louisville, Nevada, TexasArkansas, Butler, St. Mary's, AlabamaMarquette, Texas A&M, Notre Dame, MissouriProvidence, USC, Washington, SMU, Georgia, Middle TennesseeNew Mexico St. Old Dominion, Belmont, Missouri St.South Dakota St., Buffalo, Vermont, East Tennessee St.UL-Lafayette, Wright St., William & Mary, Stephen F. AustinMontana, Bucknell, Penn, FGCUIona, Hawaii, Radford, Wagner, North Carolina A&T, Arkansas Pine-Bluff
NOTES: Regional Assignment is now a consideration.The 11 seeds were shuffled to avoid possible rematches in the First/Second rounds.Currently, the deciding factor to put a team IN the field is avoiding an ugly loss (sub-200 RPI).

Details of Next Update

The next projection should be posted on Monday, 1/22.  Here is a preview of its predictive system:



Automatic Bids are still projected by current conference standings.Teams are now placed by "True Seed"Regional/Host sites subsequently listedStarting at Seed 5, season/conference match-ups are considered to move teams along the line.For example, if a potential rematch exists for a 4/5 in the same conference during the regular season, the 5 team must be moved per principle.RPI Comparison heavily favored outside the Top 8."In" teams must have at least 1 quality win (Top 50 RPI).The "scrubbing" process is emphasized only on the bubble.

Second Bracket Projection

Kansas State practically dribbled out the clock to let Kansas win.  Guess who's left out of the field?

Here's my projection:



Seed List: 1: Villanova, Virginia, Purdue, Oklahoma 2: Duke, Texas Tech, Wichita State, West Virginia 3: Michigan State, Kansas, Xavier, Gonzaga 4: Arizona, Cincinnati, Auburn, North Carolina 5: Kentucky, Arizona State, Seton Hall, Clemson 6: Tennessee, Ohio State, Michigan, TCU 7: Miami, Florida State, Creighton, Nevada 8: St. Mary’s, Florida, Louisville, Houston 9: Arkansas, Texas, Butler, Rhode Island 10: Marquette, Notre Dame, SMU, UCLA 11: USC, Middle Tennessee, Syracuse, Alabama, St. Bonaventure, Providence 12: Western Kentucky, New Mexico St., Missouri St., Murray St. 13: South Dakota St., Vermont, East Tennessee St., Buffalo 14: UL-Lafayette, Wright St., William & Mary, Stephen F. Austin 15: Montana, Bucknell, CS Fullerton, Florida Gulf Coast 16: Iona, Penn, Radford, Robert Morris, Jackson St., Bethune-Cookman

NOTES: 
Automatic Bid differences from the first b…

Methodology

Full Court Press is my favorite coaching style.  It happens to be a nice play-on-words for studying Bracketology.

A continuous work-in-progress, my concept to determine the bracket is based on the following:
The NCAA Principles and ProceduresTeam SheetsAP Top 25The RPICurrent non-power conference leadersKenPom ratingsHow I believe the committee will achieve "reasonable balance" and keep the seed lines "as equal as possible."Bubble team selection (or lack thereof) last season
Update (1/15):RPI is now a consideration, despite my absolute hatred toward the metric.

Update (1/23):Team Sheets used by the Selection Committee are available, sorted 1-351 by RPI.  These will be a more primary focus going forward.

About Me

Name: FCP
Location: Ohio

Never athletic enough to play, but I might be intelligent and boisterous enough to coach basketball at the collegiate level.  Despite having no coaching experience, like most (coaches), I developed early signs of male-pattern baldness.

I follow the game as a Gambler, Coach, Fan, and Analyst. Key points:
Always bet the over.A win is NOT a win.  How you win has more significance.Local/Hometown pride is not required.  If you want to be a fan, find a program that you can identify with and show support.
I have attended the NCAA First Four nearly every year since 2004. Here's some highlights of my experiences:
Interviewed as a "student" from Mount St. Mary'sSat with MTSU President Sidney McPhee Inadvertently worked with the Providence Scout team Met Erin Andrews, Clark Kellogg, and Gregg Marshall


First Bracket Projection

Conference Play - LET'S GOOOOOOOO!

The Field of 68 is still a crapshoot, but Duke is a sure-thing on the OVER.  Here's my projection:



Seed List:
1: Villanova, Virginia, West Virginia, Michigan State 2: Duke, Purdue, Wichita State, Xavier 3: Oklahoma, Arizona State, Texas Tech, Seton Hall 4: Kansas, Cincinnati, Gonzaga, Clemson 5: TCU, Arizona, Kentucky, North Carolina 6: Miami, Auburn, Creighton, Notre Dame 7: Florida State, Tennessee, Ohio State, Nevada 8: Texas A&M, Michigan, Florida, St. Mary’s 9: Butler, Rhode Island, Missouri, Baylor 10: SMU, Texas, Georgia, Louisville 11: UCLA, Houston, Syracuse, Marquette, St. Bonaventure, Boise St. 12: New Mexico State, Old Dominion, Murray St., Missouri St. 13: Vermont, South Dakota St., East Tennessee St., Buffalo 14: Louisiana-Lafayette, Northern Kentucky, William and Mary, Lipscomb 15: Stephen F. Austin, Montana, Bucknell, UC Davis 16: Rider, Radford, Penn, Robert Morris, Jackson St., Morgan St.

NOTES: 
With Villanova as the #1 overall seed, the…