Seed List Virginia, Villanova, Kansas, XavierNorth Carolina, Duke, Cincinnati, Michigan St.Auburn, Tennessee, Purdue, MichiganWest Virginia, Texas Tech, Arizona, GonzagaKentucky, Wichita St., Clemson, Ohio St.Florida, Arkansas, Houston, TCUMiami, Texas A&M, Seton Hall, MissouriProvidence, Nevada, Rhode Island, Virginia TechFlorida St. Creighton, UCLA, Kansas St.Butler, NC State, Texas, AlabamaNew Mexico St., Loyola-Chicago, St. Mary's, St. Bonaventure, Oklahoma, Arizona St.San Diego St., South Dakota St., Davidson, BuffaloMurray St., Marshall, Coll. Charleston, UNC-GreensboroBucknell, Montana, Wright St., IonaGeorgia St., CS Fullerton, UMBC, PennLipscomb, Stephen F. Austin, Radford, Texas Southern, LIU-Brooklyn, NC Central NOTES: Teams in bold are automatic qualifiers.The Seed List has accounted for any/all potential shifts by the committee. What you see is what you get.OPINION: I really hate this shit and am glad this nightmare is over.
Seed List Virginia, Xavier, Villanova, KansasDuke, Auburn, Cincinnati, Michigan St.North Carolina, Tennessee, Purdue, ClemsonArizona, Michigan, Texas Tech, Wichita St.Gonzaga, West Virginia, Ohio St., KentuckyTCU, Houston, Florida, NevadaCreighton, Arkansas, Florida St. Rhode IslandTexas A&M, Miami, Oklahoma, Seton HallMissouri, Butler, St. Mary's, NC StateArizona St., Virginia Tech, Providence, St. BonaventureSyracuse, Alabama, Louisville, Marquette, USC, TexasMiddle Tennessee, New Mexico St., Loyola-Chicago, BuffaloSouth Dakota St., Murray St., Vermont, UL-LafayetteWright St., UNC Greensboro, Montana, BucknellColl. Charleston, Penn, Iona, LipscombUC Irvine, Radford, Wagner, Nicholls St., Ark. Pine-Bluff, Bethune-Cookman NOTES: Teams in bold are automatic qualifiers.First Four teams are not listed by "True Seed." Regional assignment is reflective in the bracket.OPINION: If there's a line to draw and separate the field, it's clearly between seeds 5 and 6.I belie…
Seed List Virginia, Villanova, Xavier, KansasDuke, Auburn, Michigan St., PurdueNorth Carolina, Texas Tech, Cincinnati, ClemsonArizona, Tennessee, Ohio St., West VirginiaWichita St., Gonzaga, Rhode Island, KentuckyMichigan, Creighton, TCU, Texas A&MHouston, Arizona St., Arkansas, OklahomaNevada, Florida St., Missouri, ButlerAlabama, Florida, Seton Hall, MiamiNC State, St. Mary's, Providence, UCLASt. Bonaventure, Texas, Virginia Tech, Marquette, USC, BaylorMiddle Tennessee, New Mexico St., South Dakota St., BuffaloVermont, Loyola-Chicago, Murray St., UL-LafayetteN. Kentucky, UNC Greensboro, Montana, BucknellColl. Charleston, Penn, Rider, FGCUUC Irvine, UNC-Asheville, Wagner, Nicholls St., Ark. Pine-Bluff, Bethune-Cookman NOTES: Until conference tournament play, Michigan St. can only be moved by other teams.No teams were flexed up/down seed lines.OPINION: I still don't buy into the OUT theory for UCLA. Considering the loss of starters and Q1 wins (Kentucky, Arizona), they should…
Seed List Virginia, Villanova, Xavier, KansasAuburn, Duke, Purdue, Texas TechMichigan St., North Carolina, Cincinnati, ClemsonArizona, Tennessee, Ohio St. West VirginiaGonzaga, Rhode Island, Wichita St., Arizona St.Michigan, Oklahoma, Texas A&M, KentuckyFlorida, Missouri, Houston, TCUNevada, Alabama, Creighton, Florida St.Arkansas, UCLA, Seton Hall, ButlerSt. Mary's, Texas, NC State, ProvidenceSyracuse, Kansas St., Baylor, Miami, USC, Virginia TechMiddle Tennessee, New Mexico St., South Dakota St., BuffaloVermont, Loyola-Chicago, Murray St., East Tennessee St.UL-Lafayette, Montana, Wright St., BucknellColl. Charleston, Penn, Rider, FGCUUCSB, UNC-Asheville, Wagner, Nicholls St., Grambling St., Savannah St. NOTES: In comparison to the last projection, this is a complete overhaul based on "look."TCU and Creighton were flexed on seed lines (7/8) to avoid early conference rematches. OPINION: Gonzaga is knocking on the door of the last #4 seed. Winning the regular season confe…
Seed List Virginia, Villanova, Xavier, PurdueAuburn, Kansas, Duke, CincinnatiClemson, Texas Tech, Michigan St., North CarolinaTennessee, Ohio St., Arizona, OklahomaKentucky, West Virginia, Rhode Island, FloridaArizona St., Gonzaga, Texas A&M, MiamiSt. Mary's, Texas, TCU, Seton HallFlorida St., Michigan, Creighton, ButlerArkansas, Wichita St., Missouri, UCLAAlabama, Syracuse, Nevada, LouisvilleUSC, New Mexico St., Utah, Houston, Washington, BaylorMiddle Tennessee, Boise St., South Dakota St., BuffaloVermont, Loyola-Chicago, Murray St., East Tennessee St.UL-Lafayette, Montana, Bucknell, N. KentuckyColl. Charleston, Penn, Rider, FGCUUCSB, UNC-Asheville, Wagner, Nicholls St., Grambling St., Savannah St. NOTES: RPI is (more) heavily considered based on the Bracket Preview Show.This is the first projection with flexed seed lines (Florida St. / Seton Hall at 7/8).Seeds 12-16 are no longer placeholders by projected conference winner. OPINION: The Selection Committee has basically thrown my…
My prediction for the Bracket Preview was... in significant disagreement with the Selection Committee.
In terms of the Bracket Matrix, I scored 26 points out of a possible 48.
If you are looking for a reaction or Post-Game Interview, I have no comment at this time. SBNation, however, has some feedback.
While team performance and "value" will be heavily monitored (and debated) over the coming weeks, I have another agenda: Q1
Short for Quadrant 1, Q1 encompasses a teams wins on 3 factors: Home - RPI 1-30Neutral - RPI 1-50Away - RPI 1-75
On 2/4, Virginia had an overall record of 7-1 against teams in Q1. This can (and does) change throughout the season. My concern is that how much the fluctuation is considered, if at all.
For example, if Louisville or Virginia Tech were to drop in the RPI (31 and 76 respectively), Virginia would have a Q1 record of 5-1 instead. This raises several questions: Did the committee notice the change(s)?Are those teams actually regressi…
The active Bubble Watch is posted here. While the screenshot was taken as a sample, the spreadsheet is updated whenever possible.
I am constantly working to encompass a variety of statistics unlike those "other guys." Currently, data is composed as follows: RecordStrength of Schedule (SOS)Non-Conference ScheduleQuadrant 1 Win/LossWins against the field (True Seeds 1-32)RPI Losses (101-200) / (201+)
These metrics are likely to change after the Bracket Preview Show on 2/11.
Seed List Villanova, Virginia, Purdue, XavierAuburn, Clemson, Duke, Texas TechArizona, Cincinnati, Oklahoma, KansasTennessee, North Carolina, Kentucky, West VirginiaRhode Island, Gonzaga, Ohio St., Michigan St.Seton Hall, Miami, Arizona St., St. Mary'sTexas, Louisville, TCU, Wichita St.Creighton, Michigan, Nevada, AlabamaFlorida St., Florida, Butler, Texas A&MArkansas, Missouri, Washington, ProvidenceUCLA, USC, NC State, Houston, South Carolina, MarquetteMiddle Tennessee, New Mexico St., Belmont, Loyola-Chicago.South Dakota St., Buffalo, Vermont, East Tennessee St.UL-Lafayette, Montana, Wright St., BucknellFGCU, College of Charleston, Penn, RiderUCSB, UNC-Asheville, Wagner, Nicholls St., North Carolina A&T, Arkansas Pine-Bluff NOTES: All "3rd conference rematch" scenarios are (still) factored to assign teams by region.Seeds 12-16 are placeholders by projected conference winner, RPI, and Team Rank. OPINION: Xavier and Auburn are very close. Despite a blowout loss to V…
Seed List Villanova, Virginia, Purdue, KansasDuke, Xavier, Arizona, AuburnTexas Tech, West Virginia, Cincinnati, OklahomaClemson, Michigan St., North Carolina, FloridaTennessee, Kentucky, Gonzaga, Wichita St.Ohio St. Rhode Island, Miami, Seton HallTCU, Michigan, Creighton, LouisvilleNevada, Florida St. Arizona St., TexasButler, St. Mary's, Arkansas, Texas A&MMarquette, Providence, Alabama, Kansas St.SMU, USC, W. Kentucky, Houston, Missouri, UCLAMiddle Tennessee, New Mexico St., Belmont, Loyola-Chicago.Buffalo, Vermont, East Tennessee St., South DakotaUL-Lafayette, Wright St., Bucknell, MontanaColl. Charleston, Nicholls St., Penn, FGCURider, Radford, Wagner, Long Beach St., North Carolina A&T, Arkansas Pine-Bluff NOTES: Emphasis on head-to-head match-ups to keep seed line "true"All "3rd conference rematch" scenarios are factored to assign teams by region. OPINION: St. Mary's (AP #13) is the toughest evaluation. Quality wins are New Mexico St. and Gonzaga…
Seed List Villanova, Virginia, Purdue, DukeKansas, Xavier, Arizona, West VirginiaOklahoma, North Carolina, Clemson, AuburnMichigan St., Texas Tech, Gonzaga, CincinnatiArizona St., Florida, Wichita St., Ohio St.Tennessee, TCU, Miami, KentuckyMichigan, Florida St., Creighton, Seton HallRhode Island, Louisville, Nevada, TexasArkansas, Butler, St. Mary's, AlabamaMarquette, Texas A&M,
Notre Dame, MissouriProvidence, USC, Washington, SMU, Georgia, Middle TennesseeNew Mexico St. Old Dominion, Belmont, Missouri St.South Dakota St., Buffalo, Vermont, East Tennessee St.UL-Lafayette, Wright St., William & Mary, Stephen F. AustinMontana, Bucknell, Penn, FGCUIona, Hawaii, Radford, Wagner, North Carolina A&T, Arkansas
Pine-Bluff NOTES: Regional Assignment is now a consideration.The 11 seeds were shuffled to avoid possible rematches in the First/Second rounds.Currently, the deciding factor to put a team IN the field is avoiding an ugly loss (sub-200 RPI).
The next projection should be posted on Monday, 1/22. Here is a preview of its predictive system:
Automatic Bids are still projected by current conference standings.Teams are now placed by "True Seed"Regional/Host sites subsequently listedStarting at Seed 5, season/conference match-ups are considered to move teams along the line.For example, if a potential rematch exists for a 4/5 in the same conference during the regular season, the 5 team must be moved per principle.RPI Comparison heavily favored outside the Top 8."In" teams must have at least 1 quality win (Top 50 RPI).The "scrubbing" process is emphasized only on the bubble.
Never athletic enough to play, but I might be intelligent and boisterous enough to coach basketball at the collegiate level. Despite having no coaching experience, like most (coaches), I developed early signs of male-pattern baldness.
I follow the game as a Gambler, Coach, Fan, and Analyst. Key points: Always bet the over.A win is NOT a win. How you win has more significance.Local/Hometown pride is not required. If you want to be a fan, find a program that you can identify with and show support.
I have attended the NCAA First Four nearly every year since 2004. Here's some highlights of my experiences: Interviewed as a "student" from Mount St. Mary'sSat with MTSU President Sidney McPhee Inadvertently worked with the Providence Scout team Met Erin Andrews, Clark Kellogg, and Gregg Marshall